Serie A Match Board — Monday, August 31, 2026

Every Serie A match on Monday, August 31, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML5-3+0.1u

Over 2.56-2+1.8u

BTTS7-1+4.7u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.

Monday, August 31

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

12:30 PM ET

Proj0.8–1.5

LECLecceHOME20%0.8proj+408fair+536mkt+4.0%

DRWDraw29%—proj+248fair+312mktModel lean+4.5%

ROMAAS RomaAWAY52%1.5proj-106fair-150mkt-8.5%

O2.5 41% · mkt 44%BTTS 45%

Paramount+

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.2–1.0

ATAAtalantaHOME40%1.2proj+153fair-101mkt-10.8%

DRWDraw31%—proj+224fair+284mktModel lean+4.8%

BOLBolognaAWAY30%1.0proj+237fair+321mktModel lean+5.9%

O2.5 40% · mkt 53%BTTS 48%

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).