Arsenal vs Aston Villa
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Arsenal1
Aston Villa0Full timeVilla ParkBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Monday, August 31, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 0–1
Proj1.3–1.5
Aston VillaHOME33%1.3proj+206fair+533mktModel lean+16.9%Draw28%—proj+261fair+358mktModel lean+5.9%
ArsenalAWAY✓40%1.5proj+153fair-167mkt-23.0%O2.5 52% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 52% ✗
USA Net · Universo
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
Premier League tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Leandro Trossard1+ Goals41%––DNPKai Havertz1+ Goals39%42%+155✗ 0Bukayo Saka1+ Goals33%34%+200✓ 1Martin Ødegaard1+ Goals26%––✗ 0Viktor Gyökeres1+ Goals23%44%+130DNPShots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Bukayo Saka1+ Shots95%98%-4000✓ 2Leandro Trossard1+ Shots92%––DNPKai Havertz1+ Shots92%97%-3000✓ 1Martin Ødegaard1+ Shots87%––✓ 1Viktor Gyökeres1+ Shots87%––DNPShots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Bukayo Saka1+ Shots on Target67%71%-240✓ 1Kai Havertz1+ Shots on Target64%74%-280✓ 1Leandro Trossard1+ Shots on Target59%––DNPViktor Gyökeres1+ Shots on Target51%––DNPMartin Ødegaard1+ Shots on Target51%––✗ 0Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Leandro TrossardO0.527%––DNPBen WhiteO0.522%19%+420✗ 0Martin ØdegaardO0.519%––✗ 0Riccardo CalafioriO0.518%14%+600✓ 1Declan RiceO0.517%29%+250✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Leandro Trossard57%––DNPKai Havertz47%––✗ 0Bukayo Saka43%––✓ 1Martin Ødegaard40%––✗ 0Morgan Rogers31%––DNP
Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 4 meetingsArsenal lead 2-11 draw8–5 on goals