Premier League Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Season · all graded matches
ML7-2+12.5u
Over 2.56-3+0.1u
BTTS4-5−1.8u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 9 on Over 2.5.
Monday, August 24
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 2–3
Proj1.6–1.1
FULFulhamHOME48%1.6proj+109fair+295mktModel lean+22.4%DRWDraw27%—proj+273fair+271mkt-0.1%
CHEChelseaAWAY25%1.1proj+293fair+107mkt-22.8%O2.5 53% · mkt 53%BTTS 56% · mkt 54%
USA Net · Universo
Friday, August 28
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
3:00 PM ET
Proj1.3–1.4
CRYCrystal PalaceHOME33%1.3proj+200fair+432mktModel lean+14.6%DRWDraw28%—proj+258fair+336mktModel lean+5.0%
MNCManchester CityAWAY39%1.4proj+159fair-142mkt-20.0%O2.5 52% · mkt 57%BTTS 57%
Saturday, August 29
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
7:30 AM ET
Proj2.3–0.9
LIVLiverpoolHOME67%2.3proj-200fair-176mkt+2.9%DRWDraw20%—proj+393fair+389mkt-0.2%
NFONottingham ForestAWAY13%0.9proj+664fair+536mkt-2.6%O2.5 62% · mkt 59%BTTS 55%
10:00 AM ET
Proj1.6–1.1
BOUAFC BournemouthHOME47%1.6proj+112fair+117mkt+1.2%DRWDraw27%—proj+264fair+272mkt+0.6%
EVEEvertonAWAY25%1.1proj+296fair+271mkt-1.7%O2.5 50% · mkt 51%BTTS 54%
10:00 AM ET
Proj1.2–1.2
COVCoventry CityHOME34%1.2proj+197fair+100mkt-16.2%DRWDraw31%—proj+226fair+272mkt+3.8%
HULHull CityAWAY36%1.2proj+180fair+343mktModel lean+13.1%O2.5 42% · mkt 53%BTTS 49%
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.5–1.3
TOTTottenham HotspurHOME43%1.5proj+134fair+133mkt-0.3%DRWDraw27%—proj+267fair+279mkt+0.9%
NEWNewcastle UnitedAWAY30%1.3proj+232fair+226mkt-0.6%O2.5 53% · mkt 56%BTTS 58%
Sunday, August 30
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
9:00 AM ET
Proj1.9–1.0
SUNSunderlandHOME58%1.9proj-136fair+166mktModel lean+20.1%DRWDraw24%—proj+314fair+240mkt-5.3%
FULFulhamAWAY18%1.0proj+450fair+203mkt-14.8%O2.5 55% · mkt 45%BTTS 55%
9:00 AM ET
Proj1.8–1.2
LEELeeds UnitedHOME50%1.8proj+100fair+164mktModel lean+12.1%DRWDraw25%—proj+296fair+260mkt-2.6%
BREBrentfordAWAY25%1.2proj+302fair+191mkt-9.5%O2.5 58% · mkt 50%BTTS 60%
9:00 AM ET
Proj1.8–1.3
CHEChelseaHOME48%1.8proj+109fair+110mkt+0.4%DRWDraw25%—proj+301fair+294mkt-0.4%
BHABrighton & Hove AlbionAWAY27%1.3proj+269fair+271mkt+0.2%O2.5 61% · mkt 54%BTTS 63%
11:30 AM ET
Proj2.3–1.3
MANManchester UnitedHOME60%2.3proj-147fair-194mkt-6.4%DRWDraw21%—proj+373fair+407mkt+1.4%
IPSIpswich TownAWAY19%1.3proj+417fair+594mktModel lean+4.9%O2.5 69% · mkt 58%BTTS 65%
Monday, August 31
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
3:00 PM ET
Proj1.4–1.4
AVLAston VillaHOME37%1.4proj+168fair+539mktModel lean+21.6%DRWDraw28%—proj+260fair+345mktModel lean+5.3%
ARSArsenalAWAY35%1.4proj+186fair-162mkt-26.9%O2.5 52% · mkt 53%BTTS 57%
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Premier League table
Updated daily from final results2026-27 English Premier League
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 | LLDLW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 | LLDWW |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | LLDLW |
| 7 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WWWWW |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | DDWDW |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | DDWWD |
| 10 | Newcastle United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDLDW |
| 12 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WLLWL |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | DDLDL |
| 14 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | WLLLL |
| 17 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | WLLWL |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | WWWLL |