Premier League Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — the WizLine (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
2026-27 · all graded matches
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 44 of 50 on Over 2.5.
Saturday, October 10
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
ArsenalHOME52%1.5proj-107fair-222mkt-17.3%Draw29%—proj+246fair+424mktModel lean+9.8%
Leeds UnitedAWAY19%0.8proj+414fair+738mktModel lean+7.5%O2.5 40% · mkt 53%BTTS 44%1H O1.5 28%
USA Net · Universo
Aston VillaHOME35%1.4proj+184fair+177mkt-0.9%Draw27%—proj+272fair+271mkt-0.1%
BrentfordAWAY38%1.5proj+164fair+171mkt+0.9%O2.5 56% · mkt 56%BTTS 60%1H O1.5 38%
USA Net · Universo
ChelseaHOME41%1.7proj+146fair-127mkt-15.2%Draw25%—proj+300fair+336mkt+2.1%
AFC BournemouthAWAY34%1.6proj+191fair+370mktModel lean+13.0%O2.5 64%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 44%
Peacock
Ipswich TownHOME39%1.5proj+156fair+193mktModel lean+5.0%Draw27%—proj+268fair+272mkt+0.3%
FulhamAWAY34%1.4proj+197fair+156mkt-5.3%O2.5 55% · mkt 54%BTTS 59%1H O1.5 37%
Peacock
SunderlandHOME26%1.3proj+285fair+216mkt-5.7%Draw25%—proj+295fair+269mkt-1.8%
Brighton & Hove AlbionAWAY49%1.8proj+106fair+144mktModel lean+7.7%O2.5 59% · mkt 53%BTTS 61%1H O1.5 40%
Peacock
Manchester UnitedHOME63%2.1proj-171fair-125mktModel lean+7.5%Draw22%—proj+354fair+337mkt-0.9%
Tottenham HotspurAWAY15%0.9proj+573fair+359mkt-6.9%O2.5 58%BTTS 54%1H O1.5 39%
NBC · Tele
Sunday, October 11
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
Crystal PalaceHOME33%1.2proj+205fair+176mkt-3.4%Draw29%—proj+244fair+251mkt+0.6%
Nottingham ForestAWAY38%1.3proj+162fair+183mkt+2.8%O2.5 47% · mkt 50%BTTS 53%1H O1.5 32%
USA Net · Universo
Hull CityHOME41%1.2proj+142fair+282mktModel lean+15.1%Draw32%—proj+211fair+261mktModel lean+4.4%
EvertonAWAY27%0.9proj+276fair+118mkt-19.4%O2.5 35% · mkt 48%BTTS 43%1H O1.5 25%
Peacock
LiverpoolHOME31%1.4proj+225fair+182mkt-4.8%Draw26%—proj+279fair+286mkt+0.4%
Manchester CityAWAY43%1.6proj+133fair+160mktModel lean+4.5%O2.5 57% · mkt 60%BTTS 61%1H O1.5 39%
NBC · Tele
Monday, October 12
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
Coventry CityHOME23%1.0proj+326fair+249mkt-5.2%Draw27%—proj+267fair+281mkt+0.9%
Newcastle UnitedAWAY49%1.6proj+103fair+122mktModel lean+4.2%O2.5 50% · mkt 56%BTTS 53%1H O1.5 34%
USA Net
Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Premier League table
Updated daily from final results2026-27 English Premier League
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 | DDWDW |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDDL |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | DWDLW |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | WWLDL |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 | LWDLD |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | LDDWL |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | LWDLL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 | AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | LDDDL |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LLDDL |