Premier League Match Board — Monday, August 31, 2026

Every Premier League match on Monday, August 31, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML7-2+12.5u

Over 2.56-3+0.1u

BTTS4-5−1.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 9 on Over 2.5.

Monday, August 31

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

3:00 PM ET

Proj1.4–1.4

AVLAston VillaHOME37%1.4proj+168fair+539mktModel lean+21.6%

DRWDraw28%—proj+260fair+345mktModel lean+5.3%

ARSArsenalAWAY35%1.4proj+186fair-162mkt-26.9%

O2.5 52% · mkt 53%BTTS 57%

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).