Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Aston Villa0
Brighton4Full timeAmerican Express StadiumBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Sunday, August 23, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 4–0
Proj1.7–1.3
Brighton & Hove AlbionHOME✓47%1.7proj+113fair+133mkt+3.9%Draw26%—proj+284fair+272mkt-0.8%
Aston VillaAWAY27%1.3proj+270fair+235mkt-2.8%O2.5 57% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 58% ✗
Peacock
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
Premier League tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ollie Watkins1+ Goals30%32%+230DNPMorgan Rogers1+ Goals21%––DNP
Yankuba Minteh1+ Goals18%––DNPGeorginio Rutter1+ Goals18%29%+280✗ 0Diego Gómez1+ Goals17%23%+360✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ollie Watkins1+ Shots89%93%-1250DNPGeorginio Rutter1+ Shots87%95%-2000✓ 2Yankuba Minteh1+ Shots85%––DNPYasin Ayari1+ Shots82%88%-700✓ 2Morgan Rogers1+ Shots79%––DNP
Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ollie Watkins1+ Shots on Target59%66%-190DNPGeorginio Rutter1+ Shots on Target51%66%-195✗ 0Yankuba Minteh1+ Shots on Target48%––DNPDiego Gómez1+ Shots on Target45%64%-175✓ 2Morgan Rogers1+ Shots on Target44%––DNP
Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Mats WiefferO0.516%17%+500✗ 0Morgan RogersO0.516%––DNP
Youri TielemansO0.515%––DNP
Boubacar KamaraO0.513%9%+1000✗ 0Yankuba MintehO0.513%––DNPScore or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ollie Watkins37%––DNPMorgan Rogers34%––DNP
Yankuba Minteh29%––DNPGeorginio Rutter27%––✓ 1Matt O'Riley25%––DNPOur number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsAston Villa lead 2-17–7 on goals