Premier League Match Board — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Every Premier League match on Sunday, August 23, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 23, 2026 · how the model graded

ML2-1+0.8u

Over 2.53-0+0.9u

BTTS2-1+0.2u

Season · all graded matches

ML7-2+12.5u

Over 2.56-3+0.1u

BTTS4-5−1.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 9 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, August 23

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–1

Proj2.6–1.1

MNCManchester CityHOME✓69%2.6proj-223fair-176mktModel lean+5.3%

DRWDraw18%—proj+452fair+408mkt-1.6%

BOUAFC BournemouthAWAY13%1.1proj+681fair+493mkt-4.1%

O2.5 70% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 60% ✓

USA Net · Tele

FT · 4–0

Proj1.7–1.3

BHABrighton & Hove AlbionHOME✓47%1.7proj+113fair+133mkt+3.9%

DRWDraw26%—proj+284fair+272mkt-0.8%

AVLAston VillaAWAY27%1.3proj+270fair+235mkt-2.8%

O2.5 57% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 58% ✗

Peacock

FT · 2–2

Proj1.9–1.2

NEWNewcastle UnitedHOME✗53%1.9proj-113fair+309mktModel lean+28.5%

DRWDraw24%—proj+309fair+305mkt-0.3%

LIVLiverpoolAWAY23%1.2proj+343fair-104mkt-28.5%

O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 64% ✓

USA Net · Tele

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).