Real Madrid vs Elche
Kickoff, where to watch, and how the model sees it.
Real Madrid–
Elche–3:30 PM ETEstadio Martínez Valero📺 ESPN+Lineups, the pitch view and match stats land at kickoff.
What the model says
Tuesday, September 15, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
3:30 PM ET
Proj1.1–1.9
ElcheHOME21%1.1proj+368fair+843mktModel lean+10.8%Draw24%—proj+313fair+533mktModel lean+8.4%
Real MadridAWAY54%1.9proj-119fair-279mkt-19.2%O2.5 59%BTTS 59%
ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Goals70%––Jude Bellingham1+ Goals38%––Vinícius Júnior1+ Goals37%––Kylian Mbappé2+ Goals34%––Rodrygo1+ Goals28%––Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots100%––Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots99%––Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots98%––Kylian Mbappé3+ Shots96%––Jude Bellingham1+ Shots94%––Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots on Target97%––Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots on Target87%––Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots on Target76%––Jude Bellingham1+ Shots on Target73%––Kylian Mbappé3+ Shots on Target69%––Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Vinícius JúniorO0.540%––Jude BellinghamO0.538%––Federico ValverdeO0.527%––Arda GülerO0.525%––Trent Alexander-ArnoldO0.520%––Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé76%––Vinícius Júnior62%––Jude Bellingham62%––Arda Güler41%––Rodrygo39%––Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last meetingLevel at 0 apiece1 draw2–2 on goals