La Liga Match Board — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Every La Liga match on Tuesday, September 15, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 31 of 39 on Over 2.5.

Tuesday, September 15

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

1:00 PM ET

Proj1.3–1.2

Match page →

Rayo VallecanoHOME39%1.3proj+158fair+101mkt-10.8%

Draw30%—proj+236fair+274mkt+3.0%

EspanyolAWAY31%1.2proj+218fair+323mktModel lean+7.8%

O2.5 45%BTTS 51%

ESPN+

2:00 PM ET

Proj1.9–0.6

Match page →

AlavésHOME67%1.9proj-205fair+135mktModel lean+24.7%

Draw22%—proj+348fair+233mkt-7.7%

ValenciaAWAY10%0.6proj+857fair+265mkt-17.0%

O2.5 47%BTTS 41%

ESPN+

3:30 PM ET

Proj1.1–1.9

Match page →

ElcheHOME21%1.1proj+368fair+843mktModel lean+10.8%

Draw24%—proj+313fair+533mktModel lean+8.4%

Real MadridAWAY54%1.9proj-119fair-279mkt-19.2%

O2.5 59%BTTS 59%

ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).