Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid
Kickoff, where to watch, and how the model sees it.
Rayo–
Real Madrid–3:00 PM ETSantiago Bernabéu📺 ESPN+Lineups, the pitch view and match stats land at kickoff.
What the model says
Saturday, September 12, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
3:00 PM ET
Proj2.4–0.9
Real MadridHOME70%2.4proj-233fair-484mkt-12.9%Draw19%—proj+428fair+781mktModel lean+7.6%
Rayo VallecanoAWAY11%0.9proj+803fair+1621mktModel lean+5.3%O2.5 62%BTTS 53%
ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Goals65%––Sergio Camello1+ Goals39%––Jude Bellingham1+ Goals34%––Vinícius Júnior1+ Goals33%––Kylian Mbappé2+ Goals28%––Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots100%––Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots98%––Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots97%––Kylian Mbappé3+ Shots94%––Jude Bellingham1+ Shots92%––Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots on Target96%––Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots on Target83%––Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots on Target72%––Jude Bellingham1+ Shots on Target69%––Sergio Camello1+ Shots on Target63%––Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Vinícius JúniorO0.535%––Jude BellinghamO0.534%––Federico ValverdeO0.524%––Unai LópezO0.522%––Arda GülerO0.522%––Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé71%––Vinícius Júnior57%––Jude Bellingham56%––Sergio Camello47%––Arda Güler37%––Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 2 meetingsReal Madrid lead 1-01 draw2–1 on goals