La Liga Match Board — Saturday, September 12, 2026

Every La Liga match on Saturday, September 12, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 31 of 39 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, September 12

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

8:00 AM ET

Proj1.5–1.9

Match page →

Racing SantanderHOME30%1.5proj+234fair+155mkt-9.2%

Draw24%—proj+316fair+267mkt-3.2%

AlavésAWAY46%1.9proj+117fair+201mktModel lean+12.7%

O2.5 66% · mkt 54%BTTS 67%

ESPN+

10:15 AM ET

Proj1.3–1.2

Match page →

OsasunaHOME38%1.3proj+160fair+112mkt-8.7%

Draw30%—proj+235fair+252mkt+1.4%

EspanyolAWAY32%1.2proj+215fair+305mktModel lean+7.1%

O2.5 44% · mkt 44%BTTS 51%

ESPN+

12:30 PM ET

Proj1.7–0.9

Match page →

Athletic ClubHOME57%1.7proj-133fair-196mkt-9.2%

Draw26%—proj+289fair+405mktModel lean+5.9%

ElcheAWAY17%0.9proj+479fair+616mkt+3.3%

O2.5 48% · mkt 56%BTTS 49%

ESPN+

3:00 PM ET

Proj2.4–0.9

Match page →

Real MadridHOME70%2.4proj-233fair-484mkt-12.9%

Draw19%—proj+428fair+781mktModel lean+7.6%

Rayo VallecanoAWAY11%0.9proj+803fair+1621mktModel lean+5.3%

O2.5 62%BTTS 53%

ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).