Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Atlético0
Athletic3Full timeSan MamésBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Saturday, September 5, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 3–0
Proj1.1–1.2
Athletic ClubHOME32%1.1proj+213fair+205mkt-0.9%Draw31%—proj+224fair+248mkt+2.1%
Atlético MadridAWAY✗37%1.2proj+169fair+160mkt-1.3%O2.5 41% · mkt 50% ✗BTTS 48% · mkt 57% ✓
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Álex Baena1+ Goals30%––✗ 0Ademola Lookman1+ Goals28%32%+240✗ 0Giuliano Simeone1+ Goals27%17%+500✗ 0Julián Álvarez1+ Goals24%31%+260✗ 0Álex Berenguer1+ Goals19%18%+475✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ademola Lookman1+ Shots89%95%-2000✓ 1Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots88%80%-400✓ 2Julián Álvarez1+ Shots82%95%-2000✓ 1Lee Kang-In1+ Shots82%––✓ 2Álex Berenguer1+ Shots80%93%-1250✗ 0Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ademola Lookman1+ Shots on Target62%64%-175✗ 0Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots on Target53%39%+155✗ 0Julián Álvarez1+ Shots on Target51%74%-290✓ 1Álex Berenguer1+ Shots on Target50%59%-145✗ 0Iñaki Williams1+ Shots on Target45%68%-210✗ 0Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano SimeoneO0.524%15%+550✗ 0Pablo BarriosO0.517%12%+750✗ 0Lee Kang-InO0.517%––✗ 0Marcos LlorenteO0.516%15%+550✗ 0Álex BaenaO0.515%––✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone45%––✗ 0Álex Baena40%––✗ 0Ademola Lookman34%––✗ 0Julián Álvarez31%––✗ 0Lee Kang-In31%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsAthletic Club lead 2-14–1 on goals