MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

La Liga Match Board — Saturday, September 5, 2026

Every La Liga match on Saturday, September 5, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, September 5, 2026 · how the model graded
ML1-2−0.7u
Over 2.52-1+0.6u
BTTS3-0+2.7u
Season · all graded matchesFull ledger →
ML19-20−0.1u
Over 2.519-20−6.5u
BTTS18-21−5.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 31 of 39 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, September 5

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 3–0
Proj1.1–1.2
Match page →
ATHAthletic ClubHOME32%1.1proj+213fair+205mkt-0.9%
Draw31%—proj+224fair+248mkt+2.1%
ATMAtlético MadridAWAY✗37%1.2proj+169fair+160mkt-1.3%
O2.5 41% · mkt 50% ✗BTTS 48% · mkt 57% ✓
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
FT · 3–2
Proj1.9–1.2
Match page →
RAYRayo VallecanoHOME✓54%1.9proj-119fair+135mktModel lean+11.6%
Draw24%—proj+316fair+255mkt-4.1%
RACRacing SantanderAWAY22%1.2proj+361fair+240mkt-7.7%
O2.5 60% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 58% ✓
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
FT · 2–3
Proj2.5–1.0
Match page →
VILVillarrealHOME✗69%2.5proj-222fair-186mkt+3.9%
Draw19%—proj+436fair+400mkt-1.4%
DEPDeportivoAWAY12%1.0proj+708fair+582mkt-2.3%
O2.5 67% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 55% ✓
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).