Atlético Madrid vs Sevilla
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Atlético3
Sevilla1Full timeRamón Sánchez Pizjuán StadiumBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Saturday, August 29, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 1–3
Proj1.7–1.5
SevillaHOME✗42%1.7proj+140fair+339mktModel lean+18.8%Draw26%—proj+290fair+259mkt-2.2%
Atlético MadridAWAY33%1.5proj+205fair+102mkt-16.8%O2.5 61% · mkt 46% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 51% ✓
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone1+ Goals35%20%+420✗ 0Julián Álvarez1+ Goals29%34%+235DNPPeque1+ Goals24%––✗ 0Álex Baena1+ Goals21%––✓ 2Chidera Ejuke1+ Goals19%17%+650✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots93%85%-550✗ 0Julián Álvarez1+ Shots85%96%-2500DNPAkor Adams1+ Shots81%––DNP
Peque1+ Shots80%––✓ 3Rodrigo De Paul1+ Shots76%––DNPShots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots on Target60%43%+135✗ 0Julián Álvarez1+ Shots on Target55%76%-310DNPPeque1+ Shots on Target51%––✓ 1Akor Adams1+ Shots on Target48%––DNP
García Pascual1+ Shots on Target43%––DNPAssists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano SimeoneO0.531%21%+370✗ 0Álex BaenaO0.520%––✗ 0Dávid HanckoO0.517%8%+1100✗ 0Nahuel MolinaO0.515%––DNP
OsoO0.514%––DNP
Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone55%––✗ 0Julián Álvarez37%––DNPÁlex Baena37%––✓ 2Peque28%––✗ 0Isaac Romero27%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsAtlético Madrid lead 3-08–2 on goals