La Liga Match Board — Saturday, August 29, 2026

Every La Liga match on Saturday, August 29, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, August 29

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

11:00 AM ET

Proj0.9–1.6

LEVLevanteHOME20%0.9proj+406fair+236mkt-10.0%

DRWDraw28%—proj+260fair+257mkt-0.2%

BETReal BetisAWAY52%1.6proj-110fair+141mktModel lean+10.9%

O2.5 44% · mkt 50%BTTS 47%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

1:00 PM ET

Proj1.2–1.2

RSOReal SociedadHOME34%1.2proj+190fair-102mkt-16.1%

DRWDraw31%—proj+224fair+287mktModel lean+5.0%

ESPEspanyolAWAY35%1.2proj+189fair+324mktModel lean+11.1%

O2.5 41% · mkt 52%BTTS 48%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

3:30 PM ET

Proj1.5–1.5

SEVSevillaHOME37%1.5proj+169fair+282mktModel lean+11.0%

DRWDraw26%—proj+278fair+260mkt-1.3%

ATMAtlético MadridAWAY36%1.5proj+175fair+117mkt-9.7%

O2.5 58% · mkt 49%BTTS 62%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).