Málaga vs Real Madrid
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Málaga0
Real Madrid4Full timeSantiago BernabéuBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Sunday, August 30, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 4–0
Proj2.3–0.8
Real MadridHOME✓71%2.3proj-243fair-742mkt-17.3%Draw19%—proj+425fair+1156mktModel lean+11.1%
MálagaAWAY10%0.8proj+892fair+2458mktModel lean+6.2%O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 49% · mkt 44% ✓
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Goals68%77%-285✓ 1Vinícius Júnior1+ Goals37%55%-108✗ 0Jude Bellingham1+ Goals32%34%+210✓ 1Kylian Mbappé2+ Goals31%––✗ 1Rodrygo1+ Goals23%––DNPShots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots100%––✓ 6Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots98%99%-10000✓ 6Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots96%––✓ 2Kylian Mbappé3+ Shots92%95%-2000✓ 6Jude Bellingham1+ Shots88%96%-2500✓ 5Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots on Target94%97%-3000✓ 4Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots on Target78%81%-425✓ 4Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots on Target75%88%-750✗ 0Jude Bellingham1+ Shots on Target66%72%-260✓ 2Rodrygo1+ Shots on Target56%––DNPAssists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Jude BellinghamO0.541%49%+105✗ 0Vinícius JúniorO0.532%49%+105✓ 1Federico ValverdeO0.528%34%+195✗ 0Arda GülerO0.527%48%+110✗ 0Kylian MbappéO0.518%43%+135✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé74%––✓ 1Jude Bellingham60%––✓ 1Vinícius Júnior57%––✓ 1Arda Güler36%––✓ 1Federico Valverde35%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last meetingReal Madrid lead 1-04–0 on goals