La Liga Match Board — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Every La Liga match on Sunday, August 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, August 30

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

11:00 AM ET

Proj2.0–0.7

RMAReal MadridHOME67%2.0proj-200fair-422mkt-14.1%

DRWDraw22%—proj+359fair+716mktModel lean+9.6%

MCFMálagaAWAY11%0.7proj+770fair+1270mktModel lean+4.2%

O2.5 52%BTTS 46%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

1:30 PM ET

Proj1.2–1.1

DEPDeportivoHOME36%1.2proj+175fair+175mkt+0.0%

DRWDraw32%—proj+216fair+233mkt+1.6%

VALValenciaAWAY32%1.1proj+214fair+198mkt-1.6%

O2.5 38% · mkt 41%BTTS 46%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

3:30 PM ET

Proj1.5–0.8

CELCelta VigoHOME53%1.5proj-115fair+149mktModel lean+13.4%

DRWDraw28%—proj+255fair+250mkt-0.4%

ATHAthletic ClubAWAY18%0.8proj+444fair+219mkt-13.0%

O2.5 41% · mkt 45%BTTS 44%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).