Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Rayo2
Barcelona5Full timeSpotify Camp NouBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Monday, August 31, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 5–2
Proj2.7–0.7
BarcelonaHOME✓79%2.7proj-375fair-669mkt-8.0%Draw15%—proj+588fair+1047mktModel lean+5.8%
Rayo VallecanoAWAY7%0.7proj+1437fair+2310mkt+2.4%O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 47% · mkt 47% ✗
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Raphinha1+ Goals66%––✓ 2Fermín López1+ Goals46%45%+135✗ 0Robert Lewandowski1+ Goals43%––DNPLamine Yamal1+ Goals41%57%-130✓ 2Ferran Torres1+ Goals36%––DNP
Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Lamine Yamal1+ Shots99%––✓ 6Raphinha1+ Shots98%––✓ 4Lamine Yamal2+ Shots96%97%-3000✓ 6Robert Lewandowski1+ Shots94%––DNPRaphinha2+ Shots90%––✓ 4Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Lamine Yamal1+ Shots on Target83%90%-900✓ 2Raphinha1+ Shots on Target81%––✓ 3Robert Lewandowski1+ Shots on Target70%––DNPFermín López1+ Shots on Target67%88%-750✗ 0Ferran Torres1+ Shots on Target56%––DNP
Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
RaphinhaO0.533%––✗ 0PedriO0.532%––✗ 0Lamine YamalO0.526%52%-110✗ 0Frenkie de JongO0.519%––DNPMarcus RashfordO0.516%––DNP
Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Raphinha77%––✓ 2Lamine Yamal56%––✓ 2Fermín López54%––✗ 0Robert Lewandowski51%––DNPFerran Torres45%––DNP
Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsBarcelona lead 2-01 draw7–3 on goals