La Liga Match Board — Monday, August 31, 2026

Every La Liga match on Monday, August 31, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Monday, August 31

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

1:30 PM ET

Proj1.2–0.7

OSAOsasunaHOME47%1.2proj+112fair+125mkt+2.6%

DRWDraw33%—proj+201fair+238mkt+3.7%

GETGetafeAWAY20%0.7proj+409fair+286mkt-6.3%

O2.5 28% · mkt 38%BTTS 35%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

3:30 PM ET

Proj2.7–0.8

BARBarcelonaHOME77%2.7proj-337fair-349mkt-0.6%

DRWDraw15%—proj+559fair+609mkt+1.1%

RAYRayo VallecanoAWAY8%0.8proj+1196fair+1127mkt-0.4%

O2.5 68%BTTS 52%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).