Villarreal vs Alavés
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Villarreal0
Alavés1Full timeMendizorrotzaBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Friday, August 28, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 1–0
Proj1.5–1.3
AlavésHOME✓39%1.5proj+158fair+229mktModel lean+8.3%Draw28%—proj+262fair+265mkt+0.2%
VillarrealAWAY34%1.3proj+197fair+137mkt-8.5%O2.5 53% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 58% · mkt 58% ✗
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Gerard Moreno1+ Goals34%35%+195✗ 0Georges Mikautadze1+ Goals34%37%+190✗ 0Nicolas Pépé1+ Goals28%25%+370✗ 0Tajon Buchanan1+ Goals25%––✗ 0Ayoze Pérez1+ Goals24%––✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Georges Mikautadze1+ Shots95%96%-2500✓ 1Toni Martínez1+ Shots92%––✗ 0Lucas Boyé1+ Shots90%97%-3000✓ 3Nicolas Pépé1+ Shots89%93%-1250✓ 3Tajon Buchanan1+ Shots89%––✓ 1Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Georges Mikautadze1+ Shots on Target73%75%-300✗ 0Nicolas Pépé1+ Shots on Target62%62%-165✓ 2Tajon Buchanan1+ Shots on Target58%––✓ 1Ayoze Pérez1+ Shots on Target58%––✓ 1Gerard Moreno1+ Shots on Target54%71%-250✓ 1Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Georges MikautadzeO0.523%25%+300✗ 0Alberto MoleiroO0.520%––✗ 0Alfonso PedrazaO0.515%––DNP
Ayoze PérezO0.513%––✗ 0Santi ComesañaO0.512%14%+600✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Georges Mikautadze50%––✗ 0Gerard Moreno40%––✗ 0Nicolas Pépé36%––✗ 0Alberto Moleiro35%––✗ 0Ayoze Pérez34%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 2 meetingsAlavés lead 2-02–0 on goals