La Liga Match Board — Friday, August 28, 2026

Every La Liga match on Friday, August 28, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Friday, August 28

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

1:00 PM ET

Proj1.5–1.0

RACRacing SantanderHOME46%1.5proj+119fair+128mkt+1.9%

DRWDraw29%—proj+248fair+268mkt+1.6%

ELCElcheAWAY26%1.0proj+291fair+244mkt-3.5%

O2.5 46% · mkt 52%BTTS 51%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

3:30 PM ET

Proj1.4–1.4

ALAAlavésHOME38%1.4proj+162fair+219mktModel lean+6.8%

DRWDraw28%—proj+262fair+261mkt-0.0%

VILVillarrealAWAY34%1.4proj+192fair+144mkt-6.7%

O2.5 53% · mkt 53%BTTS 58%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).