Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Villarreal2
Atlético2Full timeRiyadh Air MetropolitanoBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Sunday, August 23, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 2–2
Proj1.7–1.1
Atlético MadridHOME✗49%1.7proj+102fair-119mkt-5.0%Draw27%—proj+275fair+313mkt+2.5%
VillarrealAWAY24%1.1proj+318fair+360mkt+2.2%O2.5 52% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 55% · mkt 58% ✓
ESPN2 · ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Julián Álvarez1+ Goals26%36%+190✗ 0Nicolas Pépé1+ Goals25%19%+475✗ 0Álex Baena1+ Goals23%––✗ 0Tajon Buchanan1+ Goals21%––✗ 0Ayoze Pérez1+ Goals21%––✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Nicolas Pépé1+ Shots85%88%-750✓ 2Julián Álvarez1+ Shots83%98%-5000✓ 1Tajon Buchanan1+ Shots83%––✓ 2Ayoze Pérez1+ Shots81%––✓ 1Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots79%89%-800✓ 4Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Nicolas Pépé1+ Shots on Target56%55%-120✓ 1Julián Álvarez1+ Shots on Target53%81%-425✗ 0Ayoze Pérez1+ Shots on Target50%––✓ 1Tajon Buchanan1+ Shots on Target48%––✓ 1Georges Mikautadze1+ Shots on Target44%68%-210✓ 2Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Alberto MoleiroO0.522%––✗ 0Dávid HanckoO0.515%10%+950✗ 0Marcos LlorenteO0.514%20%+400✗ 0Giuliano SimeoneO0.514%24%+310✓ 1Georges MikautadzeO0.513%19%+440✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Alberto Moleiro37%––✗ 0Julián Álvarez33%––✗ 0Nicolas Pépé32%––✗ 0Álex Baena31%––✓ 1Ayoze Pérez30%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsAtlético Madrid lead 1-02 draws5–3 on goals