La Liga Match Board — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Every La Liga match on Sunday, August 23, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 23, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-2−1.6u

Over 2.53-0+1.5u

BTTS1-2−1.3u

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, August 23

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–2

Proj1.7–1.1

ATMAtlético MadridHOME✗49%1.7proj+102fair-119mkt-5.0%

DRWDraw27%—proj+275fair+313mkt+2.5%

VILVillarrealAWAY24%1.1proj+318fair+360mkt+2.2%

O2.5 52% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 55% · mkt 58% ✓

ESPN2 · ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 1–0

Proj1.1–1.3

GETGetafeHOME31%1.1proj+226fair+134mkt-12.0%

DRWDraw30%—proj+237fair+220mkt-1.6%

RACRacing SantanderAWAY✗40%1.3proj+152fair+284mktModel lean+13.6%

O2.5 45% · mkt 41% ✓BTTS 51% · mkt 49% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 0–5

Proj1.5–1.7

ELCElcheHOME34%1.5proj+197fair+790mktModel lean+22.4%

DRWDraw26%—proj+289fair+480mktModel lean+8.5%

BARBarcelonaAWAY✓41%1.7proj+146fair-259mkt-31.5%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 52% ✗

ABC · ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).