Villarreal vs Racing Santander
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Villarreal2
Racing2Full timeEl SardinerosBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Sunday, August 16, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 2–2
Proj1.4–1.2
Racing SantanderHOME✗42%1.4proj+140fair+267mktModel lean+14.4%Draw28%—proj+253fair+282mkt+2.2%
VillarrealAWAY30%1.2proj+234fair+115mkt-16.7%O2.5 49% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 55% · mkt 63% ✓
ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Tajon Buchanan1+ Goals24%––DNPAyoze Pérez1+ Goals24%––DNPAlberto Moleiro1+ Goals23%––DNPNicolas Pépé1+ Goals20%27%+300DNPGeorges Mikautadze1+ Goals17%37%+210DNPShots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Nicolas Pépé1+ Shots87%94%-1500DNPTajon Buchanan1+ Shots85%––DNPAyoze Pérez1+ Shots81%––DNPAlberto Moleiro1+ Shots77%––DNPThomas Partey1+ Shots77%––DNP
Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Tajon Buchanan1+ Shots on Target53%––DNPNicolas Pépé1+ Shots on Target51%65%-185DNPAyoze Pérez1+ Shots on Target50%––DNPAlberto Moleiro1+ Shots on Target45%––DNPGeorges Mikautadze1+ Shots on Target43%79%-370DNPAssists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Santi ComesañaO0.515%17%+500DNPAlberto MoleiroO0.514%––DNPAlfonso PedrazaO0.514%––DNP
Ayoze PérezO0.513%––DNPNicolas PépéO0.512%24%+320DNPScore or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ayoze Pérez34%––DNPAlberto Moleiro34%––DNPTajon Buchanan32%––DNPNicolas Pépé30%––DNPSanti Comesaña27%––DNPOur number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last meetingLevel at 0 apiece1 draw2–2 on goals