La Liga Match Board — Sunday, August 16, 2026

Every La Liga match on Sunday, August 16, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 16, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-1+0.1u

Over 2.50-2−2.0u

BTTS2-0+1.7u

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, August 16

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–2

Proj1.4–1.2

RACRacing SantanderHOME✗42%1.4proj+140fair+267mktModel lean+14.4%

DRWDraw28%—proj+253fair+282mkt+2.2%

VILVillarrealAWAY30%1.2proj+234fair+115mkt-16.7%

O2.5 49% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 55% · mkt 63% ✓

ESPN+

FT · 3–0

Proj1.9–0.8

ESPEspanyolHOME✓62%1.9proj-161fair+126mktModel lean+17.4%

DRWDraw24%—proj+317fair+240mkt-5.4%

LEVLevanteAWAY14%0.8proj+597fair+288mkt-11.4%

O2.5 50% · mkt 43% ✗BTTS 47% · mkt 51% ✓

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).