Atlético Madrid vs Liverpool
Kickoff, where to watch, and how the model sees it.
Atlético–
Liverpool–3:00 PM ETAnfield📺 Paramount+Lineups, the pitch view and match stats land at kickoff.
What the model says
Wednesday, September 9, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMkt
3:00 PM ET
Proj1.7–1.5
LiverpoolHOME43%1.7proj+134fair-127mktDraw25%—proj+294fair+329mkt
Atlético MadridAWAY32%1.5proj+214fair+387mktO2.5 62% · mkt 58%BTTS 64% · mkt 59%
Paramount+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff.
Going in
Champions League tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Julián Álvarez1+ Goals40%26%+330Dominik Szoboszlai1+ Goals19%22%+380Giuliano Simeone1+ Goals18%13%+700Alexander Sørloth1+ Goals16%27%+265Alexis Mac Allister1+ Goals15%16%+550Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Julián Álvarez1+ Shots94%92%-1100Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots81%77%-330Dominik Szoboszlai1+ Shots80%92%-1100Alexis Mac Allister1+ Shots78%89%-800Julián Álvarez2+ Shots77%70%-230Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Julián Álvarez1+ Shots on Target71%69%-220Dominik Szoboszlai1+ Shots on Target47%59%-145Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots on Target43%35%+185Alexander Isak1+ Shots on Target43%77%-340Alexis Mac Allister1+ Shots on Target41%47%+115Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Julián ÁlvarezO0.517%18%+470Dominik SzoboszlaiO0.514%24%+310Florian WirtzO0.512%30%+230Virgil van DijkO0.512%8%+1100Marcos LlorenteO0.511%13%+650Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last meetingLiverpool lead 1-03–2 on goals