Champions League Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — the WizLine (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. Our ratings here are thin. Clubs play eight league-phase matches a season, so the model carries about one match of evidence per club against six in a domestic league — and a club new to the competition has none at all. So this board shows the WizLine beside the books' and stops there: no edge, no lean, until those ratings pool a club's domestic form. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
2026-27 · all graded matches
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 11 of 18 on Over 2.5.
2025-26 · last season · all graded matches
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.
Tuesday, October 13
MatchupProbProjWizLineMkt
LensHOME39%1.9proj+154fair+165mktDraw23%—proj+327fair+291mkt
Sporting CPAWAY37%1.8proj+168fair+171mktO2.5 71% · mkt 60%BTTS 71%1H O1.5 49%
Paramount+
Sabah FKHOME58%2.1proj-139fair+267mktDraw23%—proj+343fair+294mkt
Slavia PragueAWAY19%1.2proj+419fair+111mktO2.5 63% · mkt 58%BTTS 61%1H O1.5 43%
Paramount+
VillarrealHOME46%1.8proj+116fair+139mktDraw25%—proj+297fair+280mkt
NapoliAWAY29%1.4proj+251fair+225mktO2.5 61% · mkt 56%BTTS 63%1H O1.5 42%
Paramount+
RB LeipzigHOME49%2.1proj+106fair+113mktDraw23%—proj+344fair+328mkt
PSV EindhovenAWAY29%1.6proj+246fair+238mktO2.5 72%BTTS 71%1H O1.5 50%
Paramount+
Viking FKHOME26%1.6proj+283fair+1787mktDraw21%—proj+366fair+1171mkt
Bayern MunichAWAY52%2.3proj-110fair-648mktO2.5 74%BTTS 72%1H O1.5 52%
Paramount+
InternazionaleHOME54%2.2proj-120fair-289mktDraw22%—proj+354fair+535mkt
Club BruggeAWAY24%1.4proj+325fair+908mktO2.5 70%BTTS 68%1H O1.5 48%
Paramount+
ArsenalHOME69%2.3proj-227fair-309mktDraw20%—proj+410fair+535mkt
LilleAWAY11%0.8proj+813fair+1029mktO2.5 59% · mkt 60%BTTS 50%1H O1.5 40%
Paramount+
Atlético MadridHOME63%2.7proj-170fair+124mktDraw18%—proj+442fair+302mkt
Manchester UnitedAWAY19%1.5proj+439fair+229mktO2.5 79%BTTS 73%1H O1.5 56%
Paramount+
GalatasarayHOME43%2.0proj+135fair+726mktDraw23%—proj+338fair+556mkt
BarcelonaAWAY35%1.8proj+189fair-269mktO2.5 73%BTTS 73%1H O1.5 51%
Paramount+
Wednesday, October 14
MatchupProbProjWizLineMkt
Feyenoord RotterdamHOME43%2.1proj+132fair+266mktDraw22%—proj+346fair+329mkt
ComoAWAY34%1.8proj+190fair+102mktO2.5 75%BTTS 74%1H O1.5 53%
Paramount+
LASK LinzHOME34%1.3proj+196fair+980mktDraw28%—proj+259fair+585mkt
LiverpoolAWAY38%1.4proj+161fair-315mktO2.5 52%BTTS 57%1H O1.5 35%
Paramount+
AS RomaHOME39%1.9proj+160fair+283mktDraw23%—proj+329fair+322mkt
Real MadridAWAY38%1.8proj+162fair-101mktO2.5 71%BTTS 72%1H O1.5 50%
Paramount+
Aston VillaHOME64%2.5proj-174fair-129mktDraw20%—proj+409fair+321mkt
FenerbahceAWAY17%1.2proj+494fair+404mktO2.5 71% · mkt 58%BTTS 65%1H O1.5 49%
Paramount+
Bodo/GlimtHOME64%2.7proj-179fair+229mktDraw18%—proj+444fair+324mkt
Borussia DortmundAWAY17%1.4proj+473fair+117mktO2.5 77%BTTS 71%1H O1.5 55%
Paramount+
Manchester CityHOME27%1.5proj+272fair+141mktDraw23%—proj+342fair+311mkt
Paris Saint-GermainAWAY50%2.1proj-102fair+190mktO2.5 70%BTTS 70%1H O1.5 49%
Paramount+
Shakhtar DonetskHOME57%2.0proj-132fair+180mktDraw23%—proj+331fair+269mkt
AEK AthensAWAY20%1.1proj+400fair+169mktO2.5 61% · mkt 52%BTTS 60%1H O1.5 42%
Paramount+
Real BetisHOME74%3.0proj-279fair+129mktDraw15%—proj+554fair+284mkt
FC PortoAWAY11%1.2proj+798fair+230mktO2.5 78% · mkt 55%BTTS 65%1H O1.5 55%
Paramount+
Slovan BratislavaHOME50%2.2proj-100fair+758mktDraw22%—proj+354fair+510mkt
VfB StuttgartAWAY28%1.6proj+258fair-255mktO2.5 74%BTTS 72%1H O1.5 52%
Paramount+
Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Champions League table
Updated daily from final resultsLeague Phase
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 | WWDDW |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 | WWLDW |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 | DWLWW |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 | W |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 | LWLDW |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | W |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | W |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | LLWLW |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | LWLLW |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WWLLW |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | DDWDW |
| 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | W |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 19 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 20 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | WLLLD |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | WWDLL |
| 23 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 24 | Slavia Prague | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | DLLLL |
| 25 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | WLDLL |
| 26 | Internazionale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | LWLLL |
| 27 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 28 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | WLDLL |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | WLWLL |
| 30 | Viking FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 33 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | L |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | WWWLL |