San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
San Jose2
Cincinnati4Full timeTQL StadiumBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Saturday, August 1, 2026MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
FT · 4–2
xG2.0–1.9
FC CincinnatiHOME✓40%2.0xG+149fair-105mkt-11.0%Draw23%—xG+344fair+352mkt+0.4%
San Jose EarthquakesAWAY37%1.9xG+169fair+276mktModel lean+10.6%O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 74% · mkt 73% ✓
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
MLS tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Preston Judd1+ Goals52%38%+165✗ 0Kévin Denkey1+ Goals48%53%+100✗ 0Timo Werner1+ Goals46%37%+215✓ 1Josef Martínez1+ Goals45%––DNP
Cristian Arango1+ Goals42%––DNPShots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Preston Judd1+ Shots98%98%-4000✓ 5Cristian Arango1+ Shots98%––DNPEvander1+ Shots98%––✓ 3Timo Werner1+ Shots96%96%-2500✓ 1Niko Tsakiris1+ Shots93%––DNPShots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Preston Judd1+ Shots on Target84%75%-286✗ 0Evander1+ Shots on Target82%87%-475✓ 2Timo Werner1+ Shots on Target81%76%-315✓ 1Cristian Arango1+ Shots on Target75%––DNPJosef Martínez1+ Shots on Target73%––DNP
Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Niko TsakirisO0.532%––DNPEvanderO0.531%48%+110✓ 2Timo WernerO0.531%24%+320✓ 1Ousseni BoudaO0.526%17%+500✗ 0Cristian ArangoO0.521%––DNPScore or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Timo Werner63%––✓ 2Evander59%––✓ 3Preston Judd58%––✓ 1Niko Tsakiris56%––DNPKévin Denkey54%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 2 meetingsFC Cincinnati lead 2-08–4 on goals