MLS Match Board
Every match priced by our xG-driven goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Season · all graded matches
ML161-153+8.7u
Over 2.5189-125−1.6u
BTTS199-115+2.5u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.
Saturday, August 29
MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
4:30 PM ET
xG1.6–1.5
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME40%1.6xG+153fair+192mktModel lean+5.3%DRWDraw26%—xG+281fair+318mkt+2.3%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY34%1.5xG+192fair+139mkt-7.7%O2.5 59%BTTS 62%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.7–1.8
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME37%1.7xG+172fair+210mktModel lean+4.5%DRWDraw24%—xG+311fair+320mkt+0.5%
PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY39%1.8xG+157fair+128mkt-5.0%O2.5 67%BTTS 69%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.4–1.3
TORToronto FCHOME38%1.4xG+165fair+164mkt-0.2%DRWDraw28%—xG+257fair+284mkt+1.9%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY34%1.3xG+192fair+176mkt-1.9%O2.5 52% · mkt 58%BTTS 57%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.7–1.5
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME41%1.7xG+144fair+144mkt+0.1%DRWDraw26%—xG+292fair+288mkt-0.3%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY33%1.5xG+199fair+197mkt-0.2%O2.5 62%BTTS 64%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.6–1.3
CLBColumbus CrewHOME44%1.6xG+127fair+106mkt-4.4%DRWDraw27%—xG+270fair+300mkt+2.0%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY29%1.3xG+246fair+281mkt+2.6%O2.5 54% · mkt 59%BTTS 58%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.5–1.6
DCD.C. UnitedHOME35%1.5xG+190fair+261mktModel lean+6.8%DRWDraw26%—xG+285fair+289mkt+0.3%
LAFCLAFCAWAY40%1.6xG+153fair+116mkt-6.8%O2.5 60% · mkt 56%BTTS 63%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG2.5–1.4
MIAInter Miami CFHOME60%2.5xG-151fair-192mkt-5.7%DRWDraw20%—xG+402fair+460mkt+2.1%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY20%1.4xG+400fair+513mkt+3.7%O2.5 75%BTTS 70%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG2.1–1.4
MINMinnesota United FCHOME53%2.1xG-112fair-114mkt-0.4%DRWDraw23%—xG+337fair+333mkt-0.2%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY24%1.4xG+311fair+320mkt+0.5%O2.5 67%BTTS 67%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG2.0–1.4
NSHNashville SCHOME51%2.0xG-104fair-111mkt-1.6%DRWDraw24%—xG+321fair+332mkt+0.6%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY25%1.4xG+295fair+311mkt+0.9%O2.5 65%BTTS 65%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.7–1.3
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME46%1.7xG+117fair-123mkt-8.9%DRWDraw26%—xG+283fair+335mkt+3.1%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY28%1.3xG+260fair+371mktModel lean+6.5%O2.5 57%BTTS 60%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.1–2.2
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME16%1.1xG+523fair+572mkt+1.2%DRWDraw21%—xG+376fair+444mkt+2.6%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY63%2.2xG-170fair-198mkt-3.6%O2.5 64%BTTS 60%
Apple TV
9:30 PM ET
xG1.9–1.2
COLColorado RapidsHOME52%1.9xG-110fair+108mktModel lean+4.2%DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+305mkt+0.0%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY23%1.2xG+336fair+268mkt-4.3%O2.5 59% · mkt 60%BTTS 60%
Apple TV
10:30 PM ET
xG2.1–1.2
PORPortland TimbersHOME57%2.1xG-134fair-145mkt-1.9%DRWDraw22%—xG+345fair+373mkt+1.3%
ATXAustin FCAWAY20%1.2xG+393fair+412mkt+0.8%O2.5 65%BTTS 63%
Apple TV
10:30 PM ET
xG2.0–1.3
SDSan Diego FCHOME52%2.0xG-110fair-106mkt+1.0%DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+333mkt+0.3%
LALA GalaxyAWAY24%1.3xG+313fair+288mkt-1.6%O2.5 65%BTTS 65%
Apple TV
Sunday, August 30
MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
7:00 PM ET
xG1.7–1.4
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME44%1.7xG+128fair+102mkt-5.7%DRWDraw26%—xG+291fair+310mkt+1.2%
DALFC DallasAWAY31%1.4xG+227fair+279mktModel lean+4.2%O2.5 60%BTTS 63%
Apple TV
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
MLS table
Updated daily from final resultsEastern Conference
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | +26 | 49 | LDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 39 | WDLDL |
| 3 | Chicago Fire FC | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 36 | LWWWD |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 34 | DLLWD |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 32 | WLWDW |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 31 | LWDWD |
| 7 | New York City FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 27 | WDLLD |
| 8 | Red Bull New York | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 26 | LWLLD |
| 9 | Orlando City SC | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 24 | WLDLW |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 24 | LDWDW |
| 11 | D.C. United | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 24 | WDDLL |
| 12 | Atlanta United FC | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 21 | WWWDD |
| 14 | CF Montréal | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 21 | LDDWD |
| 15 | Columbus Crew | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 20 | WDLLL |
Western Conference
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 18 | +27 | 40 | DDWLW |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo FC | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 38 | WWWWL |
| 3 | LAFC | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 35 | WDLLD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 33 | DLLLL |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 6 | St. Louis CITY SC | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 33 | WDWDW |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 28 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 28 | LDDLL |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 28 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 28 | DDDLW |
| 11 | San Diego FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 27 | WDWLW |
| 12 | LA Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 26 | DDLWD |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders FC | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 25 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Austin FC | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 21 | LLLWD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 15 | LLLDL |