MLS Match Board
Every match priced by our xG-driven goal model — the WizLine (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
2026 · all graded matches
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 239 of 405 on Over 2.5, 167 of 405 on BTTS.
Saturday, October 10
MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
Toronto FCHOME46%1.7xG+118fair+105mkt-3.0%Draw26%—xG+279fair+311mkt+2.0%
CF MontréalAWAY28%1.3xG+260fair+269mkt+0.7%O2.5 56%BTTS 59%1H O1.5 38%
Apple TV
Chicago Fire FCHOME51%1.8xG-104fair-105mkt-0.3%Draw25%—xG+302fair+314mkt+0.7%
New York City FCAWAY24%1.2xG+315fair+314mkt-0.0%O2.5 59% · mkt 60%BTTS 60%1H O1.5 40%
Apple TV
Atlanta United FCHOME45%1.9xG+122fair+151mktModel lean+5.1%Draw24%—xG+323fair+320mkt-0.2%
FC CincinnatiAWAY31%1.6xG+219fair+176mkt-4.9%O2.5 69%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
Charlotte FCHOME43%1.7xG+135fair+135mkt+0.1%Draw25%—xG+295fair+300mkt+0.3%
FC DallasAWAY32%1.5xG+211fair+208mkt-0.3%O2.5 62%BTTS 64%1H O1.5 42%
Apple TV
Inter Miami CFHOME58%2.5xG-139fair-213mkt-9.9%Draw20%—xG+407fair+481mkt+2.5%
D.C. UnitedAWAY22%1.6xG+352fair+572mktModel lean+7.2%O2.5 78%BTTS 74%1H O1.5 55%
Apple TV
New England RevolutionHOME51%2.0xG-105fair+101mkt+1.5%Draw24%—xG+318fair+315mkt-0.2%
Seattle Sounders FCAWAY25%1.3xG+303fair+285mkt-1.2%O2.5 63%BTTS 64%1H O1.5 43%
Apple TV
Orlando City SCHOME42%1.7xG+138fair+123mkt-2.8%Draw26%—xG+285fair+319mkt+2.1%
Columbus CrewAWAY32%1.4xG+213fair+219mkt+0.7%O2.5 59%BTTS 62%1H O1.5 40%
Apple TV
Red Bull New YorkHOME44%1.9xG+129fair+174mktModel lean+7.3%Draw24%—xG+318fair+305mkt-0.8%
San Diego FCAWAY32%1.6xG+209fair+157mkt-6.5%O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
Philadelphia UnionHOME62%2.4xG-165fair-197mkt-4.1%Draw20%—xG+395fair+442mkt+1.8%
Real Salt LakeAWAY18%1.2xG+471fair+569mkt+2.6%O2.5 70%BTTS 65%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV
Austin FCHOME28%1.2xG+259fair+304mkt+3.1%Draw27%—xG+272fair+297mkt+1.7%
Nashville SCAWAY45%1.6xG+121fair-100mkt-4.9%O2.5 54% · mkt 55%BTTS 58%1H O1.5 37%
Apple TV
Minnesota United FCHOME48%1.6xG+110fair+121mkt+2.5%Draw27%—xG+274fair+287mkt+0.9%
Houston Dynamo FCAWAY26%1.1xG+292fair+245mkt-3.5%O2.5 53% · mkt 57%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 36%
Apple TV
Sporting Kansas CityHOME37%1.7xG+172fair+149mkt-3.4%Draw24%—xG+316fair+324mkt+0.5%
Portland TimbersAWAY39%1.8xG+155fair+175mkt+2.9%O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
Colorado RapidsHOME47%1.8xG+113fair+106mkt-1.6%Draw25%—xG+297fair+303mkt+0.4%
San Jose EarthquakesAWAY28%1.3xG+258fair+276mkt+1.3%O2.5 61%BTTS 63%1H O1.5 41%
Apple TV
LAFCHOME37%1.6xG+169fair+155mkt-2.0%Draw25%—xG+298fair+286mkt-0.8%
Vancouver WhitecapsAWAY38%1.6xG+166fair+186mkt+2.6%O2.5 64% · mkt 59%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 44%
Apple TV
Sunday, October 11
MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
St. Louis CITY SCHOME60%2.3xG-147fair-137mkt+1.7%Draw21%—xG+375fair+385mkt+0.4%
LA GalaxyAWAY19%1.3xG+414fair+370mkt-1.8%O2.5 69%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV
Wednesday, October 14
MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
CF MontréalHOME41%1.6xG+143fair+123mkt-3.6%Draw27%—xG+276fair+304mkt+1.8%
Atlanta United FCAWAY32%1.4xG+211fair+229mkt+1.8%O2.5 57% · mkt 59%BTTS 61%1H O1.5 39%
Apple TV
Columbus CrewHOME46%1.6xG+119fair+116mkt-0.7%Draw27%—xG+271fair+300mkt+2.0%
Charlotte FCAWAY27%1.2xG+265fair+248mkt-1.3%O2.5 53%BTTS 57%1H O1.5 36%
Apple TV
D.C. UnitedHOME49%2.1xG+102fair-115mkt-4.0%Draw23%—xG+337fair+330mkt-0.4%
Red Bull New YorkAWAY28%1.5xG+262fair+330mktModel lean+4.4%O2.5 70%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV
FC CincinnatiHOME43%2.0xG+134fair+116mkt-3.6%Draw23%—xG+337fair+342mkt+0.2%
New England RevolutionAWAY34%1.8xG+190fair+223mkt+3.5%O2.5 73%BTTS 73%1H O1.5 51%
Apple TV
Inter Miami CFHOME54%2.2xG-117fair-185mkt-11.0%Draw22%—xG+349fair+435mkt+3.6%
New York City FCAWAY24%1.4xG+319fair+513mktModel lean+7.5%O2.5 69%BTTS 68%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV
Toronto FCHOME43%1.8xG+134fair+148mkt+2.4%Draw25%—xG+306fair+332mkt+1.5%
Orlando City SCAWAY33%1.5xG+207fair+175mkt-3.9%O2.5 65%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 44%
Apple TV
Chicago Fire FCHOME42%1.9xG+137fair+176mktModel lean+6.1%Draw24%—xG+316fair+332mkt+0.9%
Philadelphia UnionAWAY34%1.6xG+197fair+146mkt-7.0%O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
FC DallasHOME50%1.9xG+101fair-131mkt-6.8%Draw25%—xG+304fair+351mkt+2.6%
Seattle Sounders FCAWAY25%1.3xG+294fair+372mktModel lean+4.2%O2.5 61%BTTS 62%1H O1.5 41%
Apple TV
Nashville SCHOME63%2.3xG-171fair-284mkt-10.9%Draw21%—xG+382fair+544mktModel lean+5.2%
Sporting Kansas CityAWAY16%1.1xG+517fair+829mktModel lean+5.5%O2.5 66%BTTS 61%1H O1.5 45%
Apple TV
St. Louis CITY SCHOME40%1.8xG+153fair+192mktModel lean+5.3%Draw24%—xG+311fair+303mkt-0.5%
Vancouver WhitecapsAWAY36%1.7xG+177fair+144mkt-4.9%O2.5 67%BTTS 68%1H O1.5 46%
Apple TV
Colorado RapidsHOME47%1.8xG+114fair+116mkt+0.4%Draw25%—xG+299fair+305mkt+0.3%
Minnesota United FCAWAY28%1.4xG+254fair+246mkt-0.7%O2.5 61% · mkt 59%BTTS 63%1H O1.5 42%
Apple TV
Real Salt LakeHOME40%1.7xG+148fair-115mkt-13.1%Draw25%—xG+305fair+340mkt+2.0%
San Jose EarthquakesAWAY35%1.6xG+186fair+319mktModel lean+11.1%O2.5 65%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 45%
Apple TV
LA GalaxyHOME42%1.9xG+139fair-102mkt-8.6%Draw24%—xG+320fair+342mkt+1.2%
Portland TimbersAWAY34%1.7xG+191fair+272mktModel lean+7.4%O2.5 69%BTTS 70%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV
LAFCHOME59%2.0xG-146fair-205mkt-8.0%Draw23%—xG+333fair+424mktModel lean+4.0%
Austin FCAWAY18%1.0xG+468fair+632mkt+4.0%O2.5 58%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 40%
Apple TV
San Diego FCHOME45%1.5xG+125fair+102mkt-4.9%Draw28%—xG+260fair+314mkt+3.6%
Houston Dynamo FCAWAY28%1.2xG+261fair+279mkt+1.3%O2.5 50% · mkt 59%BTTS 55%1H O1.5 34%
Apple TV
Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
MLS table
Updated daily from final resultsEastern Conference
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 21 | +34 | 60 | DLDWW |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 46 | LWWWL |
| 3 | Inter Miami CF | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64 | 50 | +14 | 46 | DDDDL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire FC | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 | DLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 | DWDWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 39 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 34 | WWWLL |
| 8 | Red Bull New York | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 33 | DLWWL |
| 9 | New York City FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 33 | DLWLD |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 64 | -9 | 33 | LLDDL |
| 11 | D.C. United | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 30 | DWDLD |
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 29 | WLLWW |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 29 | DWLLL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 | DLDWD |
| 15 | CF Montréal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 24 | LLLLW |
Western Conference
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 29 | +31 | 50 | WLWDL |
| 2 | St. Louis CITY SC | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 47 | WDWWW |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 | WWWDW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo FC | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 | DWLDL |
| 6 | LAFC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 | DWLDL |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders FC | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 38 | DDWWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 | LDWDL |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 | WLDWW |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 | WDLLL |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 | LLLLW |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 | LLLDD |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 | DDWDD |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 | LLLLL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 65 | -33 | 21 | LWLWL |