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MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 1, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 1, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 1, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 449 on ML, 252 of 449 on Over 2.5, 197 of 449 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 1

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 3–2
xG2.0–1.6
Match page →
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✓47%2.0xG+114fair+148mktModel lean+6.5%
Draw23%—xG+334fair+327mkt-0.4%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY30%1.6xG+232fair+175mkt-6.2%
O2.5 71% ✓BTTS 71% · mkt 72% ✓1H O1.5 49% ✗
FT · 3–2
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✓56%2.0xG-128fair-153mkt-4.3%
Draw23%—xG+329fair+360mkt+1.6%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY21%1.2xG+387fair+457mkt+2.6%
O2.5 62% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 58% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✗55%2.0xG-122fair-114mkt+1.7%
Draw23%—xG+328fair+342mkt+0.8%
LAFCLAFCAWAY22%1.2xG+361fair+313mkt-2.5%
O2.5 63% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 62% · mkt 63% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 2–2
xG1.8–1.2
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalHOME✗49%1.8xG+105fair+119mkt+3.2%
Draw26%—xG+289fair+282mkt-0.5%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY25%1.2xG+293fair+256mkt-2.6%
O2.5 57% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 59% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✗
FT · 2–2
xG1.5–1.4
Match page →
DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗39%1.5xG+158fair+207mktModel lean+6.3%
Draw27%—xG+265fair+263mkt-0.1%
NSHNashville SCAWAY34%1.4xG+196fair+149mkt-6.4%
O2.5 54% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 56% ✓1H O1.5 36% ✗
FT · 2–2
xG2.2–1.3
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗57%2.2xG-132fair-147mkt-2.7%
Draw22%—xG+357fair+374mkt+0.8%
CLBColumbus CrewAWAY21%1.3xG+370fair+426mkt+2.3%
O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 68% ✓1H O1.5 47% ✗
FT · 2–1
xG2.1–1.3
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓54%2.1xG-120fair-166mkt-8.0%
Draw23%—xG+341fair+388mkt+2.2%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY23%1.3xG+338fair+479mktModel lean+5.6%
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✗
FT · 1–1
xG1.9–1.3
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗49%1.9xG+103fair+111mkt+2.0%
Draw24%—xG+309fair+303mkt-0.3%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY26%1.3xG+281fair+258mkt-1.7%
O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 64% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✗49%1.8xG+103fair+107mkt+0.9%
Draw25%—xG+300fair+311mkt+0.7%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY26%1.3xG+289fair+264mkt-1.8%
O2.5 60% ✗BTTS 62% · mkt 64% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✓
FT · 0–2
xG1.3–1.4
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME33%1.3xG+201fair+248mktModel lean+4.4%
Draw28%—xG+254fair+272mkt+1.3%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY✓39%1.4xG+159fair+127mkt-5.5%
O2.5 51% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 56% · mkt 62% ✗1H O1.5 34% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG2.0–1.1
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓56%2.0xG-129fair-117mkt+2.3%
Draw24%—xG+323fair+312mkt-0.6%
ATXAustin FCAWAY20%1.1xG+398fair+357mkt-1.8%
O2.5 60% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 59% · mkt 58% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✓
FT · 4–2
xG2.0–1.9
Match page →
CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓40%2.0xG+149fair-105mkt-11.0%
Draw23%—xG+344fair+352mkt+0.4%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY37%1.9xG+169fair+276mktModel lean+10.6%
O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 74% · mkt 73% ✓1H O1.5 52% ✓
FT · 0–0
xG1.7–1.5
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME✗42%1.7xG+140fair+149mkt+1.5%
Draw25%—xG+301fair+288mkt-0.9%
DALFC DallasAWAY33%1.5xG+200fair+189mkt-1.2%
O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 66% · mkt 65% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓
FT · 2–1
xG1.8–1.5
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME✓45%1.8xG+124fair+116mkt-1.6%
Draw25%—xG+303fair+321mkt+1.0%
SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY30%1.5xG+228fair+234mkt+0.6%
O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).