MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 1, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 1, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 1, 2026 · how the model graded

ML7-7−0.1u

Over 2.58-6−1.2u

BTTS11-3+2.5u

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 1

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–2

xG1.8–1.2

MTLCF MontréalHOME✗49%1.8xG+105fair+119mkt+3.2%

DRWDraw26%—xG+289fair+282mkt-0.5%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY25%1.2xG+293fair+256mkt-2.6%

O2.5 57% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 59% ✓

FT · 3–2

xG2.0–1.2

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✓56%2.0xG-128fair-153mkt-4.3%

DRWDraw23%—xG+329fair+360mkt+1.6%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY21%1.2xG+387fair+457mkt+2.6%

O2.5 62% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 58% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG2.0–1.2

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✗55%2.0xG-122fair-114mkt+1.7%

DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+342mkt+0.8%

LAFCLAFCAWAY22%1.2xG+361fair+313mkt-2.5%

O2.5 63% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 62% · mkt 63% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG1.5–1.4

DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗39%1.5xG+158fair+207mktModel lean+6.3%

DRWDraw27%—xG+265fair+263mkt-0.1%

NSHNashville SCAWAY34%1.4xG+196fair+149mkt-6.4%

O2.5 54% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 56% ✓

FT · 3–2

xG2.0–1.6

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✓47%2.0xG+114fair+148mktModel lean+6.5%

DRWDraw23%—xG+334fair+327mkt-0.4%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY30%1.6xG+232fair+175mkt-6.2%

O2.5 71% ✓BTTS 71% · mkt 72% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG2.2–1.3

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗57%2.2xG-132fair-147mkt-2.7%

DRWDraw22%—xG+357fair+374mkt+0.8%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY21%1.3xG+370fair+426mkt+2.3%

O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 68% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.9–1.3

MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗49%1.9xG+103fair+111mkt+2.0%

DRWDraw24%—xG+309fair+303mkt-0.3%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY26%1.3xG+281fair+258mkt-1.7%

O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 64% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.8–1.3

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✗49%1.8xG+103fair+107mkt+0.9%

DRWDraw25%—xG+300fair+311mkt+0.7%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY26%1.3xG+289fair+264mkt-1.8%

O2.5 60% ✗BTTS 62% · mkt 64% ✓

FT · 0–2

xG1.3–1.4

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME33%1.3xG+201fair+248mktModel lean+4.4%

DRWDraw28%—xG+254fair+272mkt+1.3%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY✓39%1.4xG+159fair+127mkt-5.5%

O2.5 51% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 56% · mkt 62% ✗

FT · 2–1

xG2.1–1.3

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓54%2.1xG-120fair-166mkt-8.0%

DRWDraw23%—xG+341fair+388mkt+2.2%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY23%1.3xG+338fair+479mktModel lean+5.6%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 61% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG2.0–1.1

COLColorado RapidsHOME✓56%2.0xG-129fair-117mkt+2.3%

DRWDraw24%—xG+323fair+312mkt-0.6%

ATXAustin FCAWAY20%1.1xG+398fair+357mkt-1.8%

O2.5 60% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 59% · mkt 58% ✗

FT · 4–2

xG2.0–1.9

CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓40%2.0xG+149fair-105mkt-11.0%

DRWDraw23%—xG+344fair+352mkt+0.4%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY37%1.9xG+169fair+276mktModel lean+10.6%

O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 74% · mkt 73% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.7–1.5

LALA GalaxyHOME✗42%1.7xG+140fair+149mkt+1.5%

DRWDraw25%—xG+301fair+288mkt-0.9%

DALFC DallasAWAY33%1.5xG+200fair+189mkt-1.2%

O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 66% · mkt 65% ✗

FT · 2–1

xG1.8–1.5

PORPortland TimbersHOME✓45%1.8xG+124fair+116mkt-1.6%

DRWDraw25%—xG+303fair+321mkt+1.0%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY30%1.5xG+228fair+234mkt+0.6%

O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 66% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).