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Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo FC

Kickoff, where to watch, and how the model sees it.

SKCKansas CityHOUHouston8:30 PM ETShell Energy Stadium📺 Apple TV

Lineups, the pitch view and match stats land at kickoff.

What the model says

Saturday, September 26, 2026
MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
8:30 PM ET
xG1.91.0
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME56%1.9xG-125fair-172mkt-7.8%
Draw25%xG+306fair+383mkt+3.9%
SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY20%1.0xG+404fair+537mktModel lean+4.1%
O2.5 56%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 38%
Apple TV

Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff.

Going in

MLS table
Away
SKCSporting Kansas City15th18 pts5-3-17LLLWL
Home
HOUHouston Dynamo FC2nd44 pts13-5-8DDWLD

Player props

Top 5 per market

Anytime Scorer

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PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Taylor Calheira1+ Goals32%
Mateusz Bogusz1+ Goals30%
Ezequiel Ponce1+ Goals24%
Guilherme1+ Goals24%
Calvin Harris1+ Goals21%
PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Mateusz Bogusz1+ Shots96%
Guilherme1+ Shots94%
Taylor Calheira1+ Shots88%
Calvin Harris1+ Shots85%
André Luiz1+ Shots85%

Shots on Target

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PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Mateusz Bogusz1+ Shots on Target72%
Guilherme1+ Shots on Target68%
Taylor Calheira1+ Shots on Target61%
André Luiz1+ Shots on Target53%
Calvin Harris1+ Shots on Target45%
PlayerWizLineMktPrice
GuilhermeO0.519%
Jack McGlynnO0.518%
Mateusz BoguszO0.513%
Taylor CalheiraO0.513%
Manu GarcíaO0.510%

Score or Assist

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PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Taylor Calheira41%
Mateusz Bogusz40%
Guilherme38%
Ezequiel Ponce29%
Calvin Harris28%

The WizLine against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Head to head

Last 6 meetings
Houston Dynamo FC lead 3-12 draws75 on goals