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MLS Match Board — Saturday, September 26, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, September 26, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 386 of 387 on ML, 229 of 387 on Over 2.5, 148 of 387 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 26

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
7:30 PM ET
xG1.5–1.3
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME41%1.5xG+146fair+131mkt-2.5%
Draw28%—xG+263fair+284mkt+1.5%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY32%1.3xG+215fair+225mkt+0.9%
O2.5 53% · mkt 56%BTTS 58%1H O1.5 36%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.8–1.7
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalHOME40%1.8xG+147fair+164mkt+2.5%
Draw24%—xG+318fair+317mkt-0.1%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY36%1.7xG+181fair+163mkt-2.4%
O2.5 69%BTTS 70%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.8–1.5
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME44%1.8xG+128fair+135mkt+1.3%
Draw25%—xG+304fair+317mkt+0.8%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY31%1.5xG+219fair+198mkt-2.1%
O2.5 64%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 44%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.6–1.8
Match page →
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME35%1.6xG+186fair+199mkt+1.5%
Draw24%—xG+309fair+319mkt+0.5%
STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY41%1.8xG+146fair+135mkt-1.9%
O2.5 66%BTTS 68%1H O1.5 46%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG2.7–1.5
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME61%2.7xG-157fair-189mkt-4.3%
Draw19%—xG+431fair+453mkt+0.7%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY20%1.5xG+398fair+507mkt+3.6%
O2.5 79%BTTS 74%1H O1.5 56%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.4–1.5
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME35%1.4xG+187fair+144mkt-6.1%
Draw27%—xG+268fair+303mkt+2.4%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY38%1.5xG+163fair+192mkt+3.8%
O2.5 55%BTTS 59%1H O1.5 37%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.7–1.5
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME41%1.7xG+142fair+162mkt+3.1%
Draw26%—xG+287fair+299mkt+0.8%
LAFCLAFCAWAY33%1.5xG+204fair+174mkt-3.6%
O2.5 60%BTTS 63%1H O1.5 41%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.9–1.0
Match page →
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME56%1.9xG-125fair-172mkt-7.8%
Draw25%—xG+306fair+383mkt+3.9%
SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY20%1.0xG+404fair+537mktModel lean+4.1%
O2.5 56%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 38%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.9–1.6
Match page →
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME44%1.9xG+129fair+122mkt-1.4%
Draw24%—xG+317fair+300mkt-1.0%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY32%1.6xG+210fair+235mkt+2.4%
O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.8–1.1
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME53%1.8xG-111fair-182mkt-11.9%
Draw26%—xG+291fair+414mktModel lean+6.1%
TORToronto FCAWAY22%1.1xG+357fair+525mktModel lean+5.9%
O2.5 54%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 37%
Apple TV
9:30 PM ET
xG1.5–1.8
Match page →
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME33%1.5xG+206fair+121mkt-12.6%
Draw25%—xG+302fair+316mkt+0.8%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY42%1.8xG+136fair+225mktModel lean+11.7%
O2.5 64%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 44%
Apple TV
10:30 PM ET
xG1.6–1.6
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME38%1.6xG+163fair+132mkt-5.2%
Draw25%—xG+294fair+301mkt+0.4%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY37%1.6xG+173fair+214mktModel lean+4.8%
O2.5 63% · mkt 57%BTTS 65%1H O1.5 43%
Apple TV
10:30 PM ET
xG2.1–1.5
Match page →
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME50%2.1xG-102fair+107mkt+2.1%
Draw23%—xG+339fair+322mkt-1.0%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY27%1.5xG+273fair+256mkt-1.2%
O2.5 70%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV
10:30 PM ET
xG2.5–1.0
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME70%2.5xG-233fair-301mkt-5.1%
Draw18%—xG+450fair+578mkt+3.4%
DCD.C. UnitedAWAY12%1.0xG+746fair+896mkt+1.8%
O2.5 67%BTTS 58%1H O1.5 46%
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).