MatchWiz
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Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes

Kickoff, where to watch, and how the model sees it.

PORPortlandSJSan Jose10:30 PM ETPayPal Park📺 Apple TV

Lineups, the pitch view and match stats land at kickoff.

What the model says

Saturday, September 26, 2026
MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
10:30 PM ET
xG2.11.5
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME50%2.1xG-102fair+107mkt+2.1%
Draw23%xG+339fair+322mkt-1.0%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY27%1.5xG+273fair+256mkt-1.2%
O2.5 70%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV

Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff.

Going in

MLS table
Away
PORPortland Timbers9th32 pts9-5-12LWDLL
Home
SJSan Jose Earthquakes5th42 pts12-6-8DDWWD

Player props

Top 5 per market

Anytime Scorer

Full board →
PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Kevin Kelsy1+ Goals47%
Timo Werner1+ Goals40%
Cristian Arango1+ Goals34%
Ousseni Bouda1+ Goals26%
Niko Tsakiris1+ Goals25%
PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Kristoffer Velde1+ Shots96%
Cristian Arango1+ Shots96%
Kevin Kelsy1+ Shots95%
Timo Werner1+ Shots92%
Cole Bassett1+ Shots89%

Shots on Target

Full board →
PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Timo Werner1+ Shots on Target74%
Cristian Arango1+ Shots on Target69%
Kevin Kelsy1+ Shots on Target66%
Kristoffer Velde1+ Shots on Target65%
Ousseni Bouda1+ Shots on Target55%
PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Timo WernerO0.527%
Kristoffer VeldeO0.526%
Niko TsakirisO0.522%
Cristian ArangoO0.519%
David Da CostaO0.516%

Score or Assist

Full board →
PlayerWizLineMktPrice
Timo Werner56%
Kevin Kelsy52%
Cristian Arango47%
Kristoffer Velde44%
Niko Tsakiris42%

The WizLine against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Head to head

Last 6 meetings
Portland Timbers lead 3-21 draw1112 on goals