Soccer props are a volume question before they're a talent question. Whether a winger records two shots on target tonight depends far more on how many minutes he plays and how often his side gets into the final third than on how good he is. That's the order the model works in, and it's why the numbers here sometimes disagree with the obvious name.
How a player price is built
Start with minutes. A player projected for 65 minutes has roughly two-thirds the chance of a substitute's workload multiplied against every rate that follows, and MLS rotation makes that the single biggest swing factor in any of these markets.
Then per-90 rates from real shot data — how often he shoots, how often those shots land on target, how much expected-goal value he generates, and how involved he is in his team's chance creation. Those rates get set against the match projection: a side the model expects to dominate creates more shots for everyone in it, so a mid-tier forward in a favourable match can outrank a better forward in a tight one.
The output is a probability, converted to fair odds and shown beside the book's price. Where the two diverge meaningfully, that's the interesting row. Where they agree — which is most of the time — the market has it right and there's nothing to say.
The five markets, and what each is really asking
Shots is the most stable of them, because it's the highest-volume event — a forward taking three or four a game gives the model something to work with. Shots on target adds a conversion step and with it more variance; a player can have a loud game and put none on frame.
Anytime scorer is the one people bet and the one that's hardest to beat, because a single goal is a rare event and the books price it sharply. Assists depend on someone else finishing, which adds a variable nobody's model controls. Score or assist is the most forgiving of the five — two routes to the same result — and it's where a genuinely involved attacker shows up best.
What we'd flag
Late lineups are the biggest risk on this page. A projection built on an expected start is worthless if the player comes off the bench, and MLS teams confirm late. Check the lineup before you rely on any number here.
Book coverage is thinner than in baseball. Not every MLS player gets a posted price on every market, so a blank line usually means no book offered one rather than a gap in our data.
Single-match variance dwarfs the edge. These are low-event markets. A model can be right all season and wrong on any given night, which is exactly why the board freezes at kickoff and grades itself in public rather than asking to be trusted.
Not betting advice — statistical projections for information only, no outcome guaranteed. 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).