🛡 1u playWon +0.84u
-119
Live hit prob100%
Johnsvs Vazquez · Featherweight-160✓
Vallevs Elkins · Featherweight-750✓
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
Sat, August 8, 2026 — Meta APEX · Las Vegas · NV · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 12-0. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
12 of 12 fights finalWinner picks
12–0100%
our >50% side
Round totals
7–558%
our side of over/under 2½
How it ends
5–742%
our most-likely method
Leans vs the book
1–325%
where we disagreed with the book
WizLays
3–2+1.81u
all slips settled
Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
WizLays
This card3-2+1.81u
Season8-10+5.27u+29% ROI
🛡 +1006-5+1.43u
⚡ +5001-3+0.77u
🔥 +10001-2+3.06u
The model's most-likely stacks for UFC Fight Night, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.
🛡 1u playWon +0.87u
-114
Live hit prob100%
Sousavs Miranda · Lightweight-295✓
Thainaravs Lemos · Women's Strawweight-250✓
🛡 1u playWon +1.10u
+110
Live hit prob100%
Nurgozhayvs Lopes · Light Heavyweight-150✓
Millervs Goff · Welterweight-389✓
⚡ 0.5u playLost -0.50u
+477
Live hit prob0.0%
- Johnsvs Vazquez · Featherweight-160✓
Patvs Asplund · Heavyweight+255✕
🔥 0.5u playLost -0.50u
+894
Live hit prob0.0%
- MMMontanhavs Sutherland · Heavyweight+180✓
- Patvs Asplund · Heavyweight+255✕
🌙 for funNot graded
+2161
Live hit prob0.0%
- Thainaravs Lemos · Women's Strawweight-250✓
- MMMontanhavs Sutherland · Heavyweight+180✓
- Patvs Asplund · Heavyweight+255✕
- Johnsvs Vazquez · Featherweight-160✓
Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R1 0:37 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 44% · was Submission ✗ we had it 17%
fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 48% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 53% over 2½ · went R1 4:25 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 50% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 33%
fight lengthwe said 69% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 68% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went R3 0:15 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 42% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 37%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over
how it endswe said KO/TKO 44% · was Decision - Unanimous ✗ we had it 42%
fight lengthwe said 59% under 2½ · went R1 0:01 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 48% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went R1 1:50 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 44% · was Submission ✗ we had it 14%
fight lengthwe said 50% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 46% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R1 3:09 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 57% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 27%
fight lengthwe said 63% over 2½ · went R2 1:38 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 60% · was Submission ✗ we had it 23%
fight lengthwe said 68% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 66% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓