UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld

Sat, August 8, 2026 — Meta APEX · Las Vegas · NV · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 12-0. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.

Card complete

12 of 12 fights final

Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.

WizLays

This card3-2+1.81u

🛡 +10012-14-1.09u

⚡ +5001-7-1.23u

🔥 +10002-5+5.74u

The model's most-likely stacks for UFC Fight Night, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.

🛡 1u playWon +0.84u

-119

Live hit prob

100%

Vallevs Elkins · Featherweight
-750✓
Johnsvs Vazquez · Featherweight
-160✓

🛡 1u playWon +0.87u

-114

Live hit prob

100%

Thainaravs Lemos · Women's Strawweight
-250✓
Sousavs Miranda · Lightweight
-295✓

🛡 1u playWon +1.10u

+110

Live hit prob

100%

Nurgozhayvs Lopes · Light Heavyweight
-150✓
Millervs Goff · Welterweight
-389✓

⚡ 0.5u playLost -0.50u

+477

Live hit prob

0.0%

Patvs Asplund · Heavyweight
+255✕
Johnsvs Vazquez · Featherweight
-160✓

🔥 0.5u playLost -0.50u

+894

Live hit prob

0.0%

MM
Montanhavs Sutherland · Heavyweight
+180✓
Patvs Asplund · Heavyweight
+255✕

🌙 for funNot graded

+2161

Live hit prob

0.0%

Thainaravs Lemos · Women's Strawweight
-250✓
MM
Montanhavs Sutherland · Heavyweight
+180✓
Patvs Asplund · Heavyweight
+255✕
Johnsvs Vazquez · Featherweight
-160✓

Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

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Main Card

Lightweight · 5 RDSSubmission · R1 0:37⚔ compare

Mateusz Gamrot26-5-0

WizLine+165 (38%)-165 (62%)best book+122 (44%)-132 (56%)

Quillan Salkilld13-1-0✓ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R1 0:37 ✗ under

how it endswe said Decision 44% · was Submission ✗ we had it 17%

LightweightDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Diego Ferreira20-7-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-101 (50%)+101 (50%)best book-172 (61%)+160 (39%)

Billy Quarantillo18-8-0

fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 48% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

FeatherweightKO/TKO · R1 4:25⚔ compare

Darren Elkins29-13-0

WizLine+285 (26%)-285 (74%)best book+575 (15%)-750 (85%)

Yadier del Valle11-1-0✓ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 53% over 2½ · went R1 4:25 ✗ under

how it endswe said Decision 50% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 33%

Women's StrawweightDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Amanda Lemos15-7-1

WizLine+263 (28%)-263 (72%)best book+215 (31%)-250 (69%)

Alexia Thainara15-1-0✓ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 69% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 68% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

WelterweightKO/TKO · R3 0:15⚔ compare

Billy Ray Goff9-5-0

WizLine+259 (28%)-259 (72%)best book+340 (23%)-389 (77%)

Ty Miller8-0-0✓ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went R3 0:15 ✓ under

how it endswe said Decision 42% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 37%

Prelims

HeavyweightDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Steven Asplund8-2-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-102 (50%)+102 (50%)best book-295 (72%)+255 (28%)

Guilherme Pat6-2-0

fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over

how it endswe said KO/TKO 44% · was Decision - Unanimous ✗ we had it 42%

Light HeavyweightKO/TKO · R1 0:01⚔ compare

Diyar Nurgozhay12-2-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-168 (63%)+168 (37%)best book-150 (58%)+140 (42%)

Bruno Lopes14-4-0

fight lengthwe said 59% under 2½ · went R1 0:01 ✓ under

how it endswe said KO/TKO 48% · was KO/TKO ✓

HeavyweightSubmission · R1 1:50⚔ compare

Louie Sutherland11-6-0

WizLine+111 (47%)-111 (53%)best book-184 (64%)+180 (36%)

José Montanha7-1-0✓ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went R1 1:50 ✓ under

how it endswe said Decision 44% · was Submission ✗ we had it 14%

LightweightDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Manoel Sousa15-1-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-178 (64%)+178 (36%)best book-295 (72%)+260 (28%)

Richie Miranda13-2-0

fight lengthwe said 50% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 46% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

FeatherweightKO/TKO · R1 3:09⚔ compare

Miles Johns16-5-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-254 (72%)+254 (28%)best book-160 (61%)+165 (39%)

Gianni Vazquez14-6-1

fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R1 3:09 ✗ under

how it endswe said Decision 57% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 27%

Women's FlyweightSubmission · R2 1:38⚔ compare

Juliana Miller6-4-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-164 (62%)+164 (38%)best book-298 (73%)+275 (27%)

Ravena Oliveira7-5-1

fight lengthwe said 63% over 2½ · went R2 1:38 ✗ under

how it endswe said Decision 60% · was Submission ✗ we had it 23%

Women's StrawweightDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Gigi Canuto7-2-0

WizLine+119 (46%)-119 (54%)bookno line posted yet

Carol Foro10-1-0✓ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 68% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 66% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

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