Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4

Tue, September 1, 2026 — Meta APEX · Las Vegas · NV · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 4-1. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.

Card complete

5 of 5 fights final

Leans vs the book

—

where we disagreed with the book

Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.

WizLays

This card1-2-0.48u

🛡 +10012-14-1.09u

⚡ +5001-7-1.23u

🔥 +10002-5+5.74u

The model's most-likely stacks for Dana White's Contender Series, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.

🛡 1u playWon +1.02u

+102

Live hit prob

100%

DD
Darbyvs Rivera · Welterweight
-400✓
Livingstonvs Smith · Lightweight
-162✓

🛡 1u playLost -1.00u

+118

Live hit prob

0.0%

MM
McCrackenvs Sanchez · Lightweight
-265✕
CC
Clevelandvs Lourenço · Heavyweight
-172✕

⚡ 0.5u playLost -0.50u

+468

Live hit prob

0.0%

RR
Rodriguesvs Holmes · Middleweight
+122✓
CC
Clevelandvs Lourenço · Heavyweight
-172✕
Livingstonvs Smith · Lightweight
-162✓

Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

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