UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Sat, August 29, 2026 — Shanghai Oriental Sports Center · Shanghai · China · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 9-4. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
13 of 13 fights finalEvery fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R2 1:48 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 44% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 39%
fight lengthwe said 75% over 2½ · went R1 4:49 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 71% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 14%
fight lengthwe said 51% under 2½ · went R2 0:34 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 45% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 39%
fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 57% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 59% under 2½ · went R1 0:33 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 48% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went R2 2:37 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 46% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 34%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 60% over 2½ · went R3 1:57 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 55% · was Submission ✗ we had it 19%
fight lengthwe said 57% over 2½ · went R1 4:14 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 52% · was Submission ✗ we had it 20%
fight lengthwe said 59% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 55% · was Decision - Split ✓
fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went R1 1:00 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 46% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 36%
fight lengthwe said 63% over 2½ · went R2 0:53 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 59% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 23%
fight lengthwe said 67% over 2½ · went R1 3:06 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 65% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 22%
fight lengthwe said 57% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 52% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓