Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, June 11, 2026)?

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, June 11, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, June 11, 2026: Freddie Freeman (100), Alec Burleson (91), Shohei Ohtani (89), Carson Benge (88), Cole Young (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, June 11, 2026?

Yes — Freddie Freeman got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year. Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .223 against righties this year. Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Edouard Julien (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL). RHP Mitch Keller has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD). RHP Michael Wacha has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, June 11, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, June 11, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 64% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 64%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 67%

Full slate

83/12666%

season 56%

Top call Freddie Freeman came through. Josh Jung didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 0–2

AZaway

MIAhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–5

STLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup91 Final · 0–11

MINaway

DEThomeTop matchup80 Final · 4–2

TEXaway

KChomeTop matchup83 Final · 9–3

CHCaway

COLhomeTop matchup85 Final · 8–6

LADaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–7

SEAaway

BALhomeTop matchup87

Not starting39 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 165 shownScore

88 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Cole Young2B
SEA@BAL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T1
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsCHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T1
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsMIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T1
Brett SullivanC
COLvsCHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #108
5
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@PIT· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T5
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T5
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T5
Andy PagesCF
LAD@PIT· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T5
Jared Young1B
NYMvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T5
Willi Castro2B
COLvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T5
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T5
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T5
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T5
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T5
Michael Busch1B
CHC@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T5
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T5
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T5
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T5
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T5
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T5
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T5
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T5
Colt Keith3B
DETvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T5
Elias DíazC
TEX@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T5
Jake Burger1B
TEX@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #95
T5
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #107
T5
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #114
T5
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #115
29
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T29
Alec Burleson1B
STL@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T29
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T29
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T29
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T29
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T29
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T29
Ian HappLF
CHC@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T29
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T29
Liam HicksC
MIAvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T29
Carter JensenC
KCvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T29
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T29
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T29
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T29
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T29
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T29
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T29
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T29
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T29
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T29
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T29
Taylor WardDH
BALvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T29
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T29
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T29
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #53
T29
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T29
Josh BellDH
MIN@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T29
Miles Mastrobuoni3B
SEA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T29
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T29
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T29
Dalton RushingC
LAD@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T29
Colton CowserCF
BALvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T29
MJ MelendezDH
NYMvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T29
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T29
LuJames Groover1B
AZ@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T29
Moisés BallesterosDH
CHC@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T29
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T29
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T29
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T29
Carson KellyC
CHC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T29
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #92
T29
Jake MangumCF
PITvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #93
T29
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #96
T29
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #98
T29
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #99
T29
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #102
T29
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #104
T29
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #106
T29
Masyn WinnSS
STL@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #109
T29
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #110
T29
Kameron MisnerCF
KCvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #111
T29
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #113
T29
Evan CarterCF
TEX@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T29
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #124
T29
Jorge BarrosaCF
AZ@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #126
T29
Santiago Espinal3B
LAD@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H
T29
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T29
Wenceel PérezRF
DETvsMIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T29
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsLAD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T29
Alex CallLF
LAD@PIT· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026

Freddie Freeman (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, June 11, 2026 board at 100, with Alec Burleson (STL) and Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is hitting .269 H/PA against righties this year — and .410 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .310 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Mitch Keller too — .450 across 20 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Alec Burleson (STL) (91) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.174), hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (89) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.310).
Carson Benge (NYM) (88) vs RHP Hunter Dobbins: a solid bat at .243 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Cole Young (SEA) (87) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
Edouard Julien (COL) (85) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a solid bat at .242 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.455), hitter's park.
Otto Lopez (MIA) (85) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
Josh Jung (TEX) (83) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Edouard Julien (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
RHP Mitch Keller has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
RHP Michael Wacha has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).

Platoon edges to target

Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.
Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .223 against righties this year.
Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Edouard Julien (COL) at 85.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Alec Burleson (STL), Josh Jung (TEX), Josh Naylor (SEA), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Vinnie Pasquantino (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Bo Bichette (NYM), Luke Raley (SEA), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Freddie Freeman finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, June 11, 2026)?: Freddie Freeman (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, June 11, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, June 11, 2026: Freddie Freeman (100), Alec Burleson (91), Shohei Ohtani (89), Carson Benge (88), Cole Young (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, June 11, 2026?: Yes — Freddie Freeman got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year. Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .223 against righties this year. Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Edouard Julien (COL) at 85.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Edouard Julien (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL). RHP Mitch Keller has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD). RHP Michael Wacha has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Alec Burleson (STL), Josh Jung (TEX), Josh Naylor (SEA), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Vinnie Pasquantino (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Bo Bichette (NYM), Luke Raley (SEA), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.