Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?

Jackson Chourio (MIL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Cristopher Sánchez. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, June 14, 2026: Jackson Chourio (100), Paul Goldschmidt (99), Fernando Tatis Jr. (93), Alec Burleson (92), Willi Castro (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, June 14, 2026?

Yes — Jackson Chourio got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .359 against lefties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .309 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Blake Dunn (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN). LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, June 14, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, June 14, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 64% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 64%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 68%

Full slate

175/25269%

season 57%

Top call Jackson Chourio came through. Andrew Vaughn didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–2

MIAaway

PIThomeTop matchup87 Final · 5–2

SDaway

BALhomeTop matchup93 Final · 1–10

SEAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup72 Final · 8–3

NYYaway

TORhomeTop matchup99 Final · 1–8

ATLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup79 Final · 5–3

AZaway

CINhomeTop matchup83 Final · 0–4

HOUaway

KChomeTop matchup84 Final · 4–5

STLaway

MINhomeTop matchup92 Final · 4–6

LADaway

CWShomeTop matchup86 Final · 0–4

PHIaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 Final · 23–9

COLaway

ATHhomeTop matchup92 Final · 1–5

CHCaway

SFhomeTop matchup88 Final · 8–3

TBaway

LAAhomeTop matchup84 Final · 6–4

TEXaway

BOShomeTop matchup78

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 317 shownScore

177 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@ATH· 5-for-6
5HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
2
Willi Castro2B
COL@ATH· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T2
Kyle Karros3B
COL@ATH· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
4
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@TOR· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T4
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsNYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T4
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T4
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsTEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T4
James WoodRF
WSHvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T4
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@ATH· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T4
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@BOS· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T4
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T4
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T4
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
14
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T14
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T14
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T14
Liam HicksC
MIA@PIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T14
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T14
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T14
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T14
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T14
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T14
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T14
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T14
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T14
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T14
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@ATH· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T14
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T14
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T14
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T14
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CINvsAZ· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T14
Josh BellDH
MINvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T14
William ContrerasC
MILvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T14
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T14
Cole CarriggCF
COL@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T14
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T14
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T14
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T14
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T14
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T14
Jake MangumCF
PITvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T14
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T14
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T14
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T14
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEX@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T14
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T14
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T14
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T14
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T14
Rodolfo DuránC
SD@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T14
George SpringerDH
TORvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T14
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T14
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T14
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T14
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #178
T14
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T14
Cody Freeman3B
TEX@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T14
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T14
Kameron MisnerCF
KCvsHOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T14
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T14
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T14
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsATL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T14
Blake PerkinsCF
MILvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T14
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T14
Ali SánchezC
NYY@TOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T14
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T14
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T14
Davis SchneiderLF
TORvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T14
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsSTL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
70
Alec Burleson1B
STL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T70
Otto LopezSS
MIA@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T70
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T70
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T70
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T70
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T70
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T70
Josh Jung3B
TEX@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T70
JJ BledayLF
CINvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T70
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T70
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T70
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T70
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T70
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T70
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T70
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T70
Samad TaylorLF
SD@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T70
Cole Young2B
SEA@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T70
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T70
Michael Busch1B
CHC@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T70
Taylor WardDH
BALvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T70
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T70
Matt Olson1B
ATL@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T70
Jake Burger1B
TEX@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T70
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T70
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T70
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T70
Matt Chapman3B
SFvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T70
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T70
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T70
Christian Walker1B
HOU@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T70
Junior Caminero3B
TB@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T70
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T70
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T70
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T70
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T70
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T70
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T70
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T70
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T70
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T70
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T70
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T70
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T70
Jared Young1B
NYMvsATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T70
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T70
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T70
Carter JensenC
KCvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T70
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T70
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T70
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T70
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T70
José FermínLF
STL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T70
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T70
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T70
Colton CowserCF
BALvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T70
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T70
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T70
Gary SánchezC
MILvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T70
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T70
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T70
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T70
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T70
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T70
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T70
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T70
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T70
Joe MackC
MIA@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T70
Daniel SusacC
SFvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #172
T70
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #175
T70
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #179
T70
Raynel Delgado2B
HOU@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T70
Ryan WardLF
LAD@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T70
Braxton FulfordDH
COL@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T70
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T70
Cam SmithRF
HOU@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T70
Moisés BallesterosDH
CHC@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T70
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T70
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T70
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T70
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T70
Dalton RushingC
LAD@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T70
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T70
Luis RengifoLF
MILvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T70
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T70
Matt McLain2B
CINvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T70
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T70
Richie Palacios2B
TB@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T70
Ben Williamson2B
TB@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T70
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T70
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOSvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T70
Hunter FeducciaC
TB@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T70
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T70
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T70
Connor Norby2B
MIA@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T70
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T70
Alex Freeland2B
LAD@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T70
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T70
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #238
T70
David Hamilton3B
MILvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #239
T70
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #242
T70
Derek HillCF
PHI@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T70
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T70
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T70
Sandy LeónC
ATL@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T70
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T70
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #252
T70
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsCOL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026

Jackson Chourio (MIL) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, June 14, 2026 board at 100, with Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Cristopher Sánchez. The righty is hitting .359 H/PA against lefties this year — and .643 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Cristopher Sánchez has been tough on lefties lately — .158 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Cristopher Sánchez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.

The rest of the top of the board

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (99) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (93) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a strong bat at .259 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.257).
Alec Burleson (STL) (92) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.281), hot bat.
Willi Castro (COL) (92) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.407).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (88) vs RHP Logan Webb: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (87) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.192), hot bat.
Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (87) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: an elite bat at .311 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Blake Dunn (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).

Platoon edges to target

Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .359 against lefties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .309 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Alec Burleson (STL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Wade Meckler (LAA), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Carson Benge (NYM).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?: Jackson Chourio (MIL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Cristopher Sánchez. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, June 14, 2026: Jackson Chourio (100), Paul Goldschmidt (99), Fernando Tatis Jr. (93), Alec Burleson (92), Willi Castro (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, June 14, 2026?: Yes — Jackson Chourio got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .359 against lefties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .309 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Blake Dunn (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN). LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Alec Burleson (STL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Wade Meckler (LAA), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Carson Benge (NYM).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.