Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026
Top hits spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Cristopher Sánchez. The righty is hitting .359 H/PA against lefties this year — and .643 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Cristopher Sánchez has been tough on lefties lately — .158 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Cristopher Sánchez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (99) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hot bat.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (93) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a strong bat at .259 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.257).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (92) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.281), hot bat.
- Willi Castro (COL) (92) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.407).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (88) vs RHP Logan Webb: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (87) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.192), hot bat.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (87) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: an elite bat at .311 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Blake Dunn (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .359 against lefties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .309 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Alec Burleson (STL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Wade Meckler (LAA), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Carson Benge (NYM).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.