Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, June 15, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Nick Kurtz (79), Yordan Alvarez (78), Michael Busch (77), Otto Lopez (72). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 15, 2026?

Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 4 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .222 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year. Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .234 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH). LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jac Caglianone (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Lane Thomas (KC). RHP Tobias Myers has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, June 15, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, June 15, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 64% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 64%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 68%

Full slate

101/18056%

season 57%

Top call Pete Crow-Armstrong came through. Michael Busch didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 0–7

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–7

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup68 Final · 0–12

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup67 Final · 0–3

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup67 Final · 4–5

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–2

MINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup67 Final · 9–3

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–4

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–11

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup79 Final · 3–4

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup72

Not starting47 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 227 shownScore

104 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCOL· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
2
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T2
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T2
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@ATH· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T2
Colt Keith3B
DET@HOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #115
T2
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T2
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
8
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T8
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T8
Liam HicksC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T8
Willi Castro2B
COL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T8
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T8
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T8
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T8
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T8
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T8
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T8
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T8
Dillon DinglerC
DET@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T8
JJ BledayLF
CINvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T8
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T8
Junior Caminero3B
TB@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T8
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T8
Jo AdellRF
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T8
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T8
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T8
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T8
Mike TroutCF
LAA@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T8
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T8
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T8
Josh BellDH
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T8
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #116
T8
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T8
Nick Loftin3B
KC@WSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T8
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T8
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T8
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsKC· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #173
T8
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #179
T8
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T8
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
41
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T41
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T41
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T41
Blake DunnCF
CINvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T41
James WoodRF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T41
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T41
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T41
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T41
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsDET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T41
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T41
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T41
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T41
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T41
Austin MartinRF
MIN@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T41
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T41
Jake MangumCF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T41
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T41
Max Muncy3B
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T41
Riley GreeneLF
DET@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T41
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T41
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T41
Lane ThomasLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T41
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T41
Ben Williamson2B
TB@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T41
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T41
Maikel Garcia3B
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T41
Elias DíazC
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T41
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T41
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T41
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T41
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T41
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T41
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T41
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T41
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T41
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T41
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T41
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T41
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T41
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T41
Cole CarriggCF
COL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T41
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T41
Ryan WardLF
LADvsTB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #117
T41
Starling MarteRF
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #122
T41
Carter JensenC
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #123
T41
Jimmy CrooksC
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T41
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #126
T41
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T41
Austin SlaterRF
TB@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T41
Manny Machado3B
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
T41
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #136
T41
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T41
Joe MackC
MIA@PHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #140
T41
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T41
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T41
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T41
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T41
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T41
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T41
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T41
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T41
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T41
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #178
T41
Jake MeyersCF
HOUvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, June 15, 2026 board at 100, with Nick Kurtz (ATH) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .233 H/PA against righties this year — and .372 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .250 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Nick Kurtz (ATH) (79) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .237 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hot bat.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Drew Anderson: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.421), hot bat.
Michael Busch (CHC) (77) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .235 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Otto Lopez (MIA) (72) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm tough on the same side (.111), hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (72) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .256 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240).
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (72) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .251 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320), hot bat.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (71) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), due to bounce back.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH).
LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jac Caglianone (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Lane Thomas (KC).
RHP Tobias Myers has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).

Platoon edges to target

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .222 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year.
Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .234 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nick Kurtz (ATH), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Michael Busch (CHC), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Wade Meckler (LAA), Blake Dunn (CIN), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Joc Pederson (TEX).

How it played out

4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 4 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, June 15, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Nick Kurtz (79), Yordan Alvarez (78), Michael Busch (77), Otto Lopez (72). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 15, 2026?: Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 4 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .222 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year. Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .234 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH). LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jac Caglianone (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Lane Thomas (KC). RHP Tobias Myers has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nick Kurtz (ATH), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Michael Busch (CHC), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Wade Meckler (LAA), Blake Dunn (CIN), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.