Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top hits spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .233 H/PA against righties this year — and .372 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .250 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (79) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .237 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Drew Anderson: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.421), hot bat.
- Michael Busch (CHC) (77) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .235 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (72) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm tough on the same side (.111), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (72) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .256 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240).
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (72) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .251 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320), hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (71) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
- RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH).
- LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jac Caglianone (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Lane Thomas (KC).
- RHP Tobias Myers has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .222 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year.
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .234 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nick Kurtz (ATH), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Michael Busch (CHC), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Wade Meckler (LAA), Blake Dunn (CIN), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
How it played out
4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 4 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.