Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Top hits spot: Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jesús Luzardo. The righty is hitting .457 H/PA against lefties this year — and .400 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Jesús Luzardo has been giving up plenty to lefties lately — .243 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 15 career PA against Jesús Luzardo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (92) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a solid bat at .244 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a strong bat at .266 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (88) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .288 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hot bat.
- Troy Johnston (COL) (83) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357).
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (83) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- James Wood (WSH) (82) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
- RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM).
- RHP Davis Martin has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
- RHP Slade Cecconi has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .457 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
- Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .318 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Jake McCarthy (COL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Alec Burleson (STL), James Wood (WSH), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Iván Herrera (STL), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Otto Lopez finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.