Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?

Otto Lopez (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jesús Luzardo. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Otto Lopez (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96), Jake McCarthy (92), Jackson Chourio (91), Alec Burleson (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .457 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .318 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM). RHP Davis Martin has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY). RHP Slade Cecconi has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 65%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

156/27058%

season 57%

Top call Otto Lopez came through. Jackson Chourio didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–8

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–6

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup82 Final · 6–1

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup83 Final · 2–12

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–5

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup71 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup91 Final · 2–3

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup88 Final · 5–2

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup96 Final · 12–2

MINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–4

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup80 Final · 6–5

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup82 Final · 1–3

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup75 Final · 7–0

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup65 Final · 0–1

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup78 Final · 7–2

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup82

Not starting56 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 326 shownScore

158 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@TEX· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T1
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@ATH· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
3
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@CHC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T3
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@WSH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T3
Luis Arraez2B
SF@ATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T3
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T3
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsPIT· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T3
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsCWS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T3
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T3
Alex JacksonC
MIN@TEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T3
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsCWS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T3
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@AZ· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
13
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T13
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T13
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T13
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T13
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsDET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T13
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T13
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T13
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T13
George SpringerDH
TOR@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T13
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T13
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T13
Josh BellDH
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T13
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T13
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T13
Zach NetoSS
LAA@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T13
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T13
Riley GreeneLF
DET@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T13
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T13
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T13
Tyler CallihanLF
PIT@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T13
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T13
Mike TroutCF
LAA@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T13
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T13
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T13
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T13
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T13
Nick Loftin3B
KC@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T13
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T13
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T13
Drew MillasC
WSHvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T13
Casey SchmittLF
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T13
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T13
Davis SchneiderLF
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T13
Raynel Delgado2B
HOUvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T13
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T13
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsKC· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T13
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T13
Connor WongC
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T13
J.C. EscarraC
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
52
Otto LopezSS
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T52
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T52
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T52
James WoodRF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T52
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T52
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T52
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsDET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T52
Yandy DíazDH
TB@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T52
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T52
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T52
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T52
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T52
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T52
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T52
Willi Castro2B
COL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T52
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T52
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T52
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T52
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T52
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T52
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T52
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T52
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T52
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T52
Juan SotoLF
NYM@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T52
Lane ThomasLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T52
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T52
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T52
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T52
Austin SlaterRF
TB@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T52
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T52
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T52
Blake DunnCF
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T52
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #81
T52
Andy PagesCF
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T52
Jake MangumCF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T52
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T52
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T52
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T52
Taylor WardDH
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T52
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T52
Samad TaylorLF
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T52
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T52
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T52
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T52
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T52
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T52
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T52
Rafael Devers1B
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T52
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T52
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T52
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T52
Elias DíazC
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T52
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T52
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T52
Liam HicksC
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T52
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T52
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T52
Starling MarteRF
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T52
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T52
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T52
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T52
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T52
Jo AdellRF
LAA@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T52
Salvador PerezDH
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T52
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T52
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T52
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T52
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T52
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T52
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T52
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T52
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T52
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T52
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T52
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T52
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T52
Austin HedgesC
CLE@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T52
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T52
Edouard Julien2B
COL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T52
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T52
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T52
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T52
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T52
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T52
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T52
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T52
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T52
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T52
Willy AdamesSS
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T52
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T52
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T52
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T52
Ty France1B
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T52
Ryan WardLF
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T52
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T52
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T52
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T52
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T52
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T52
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T52
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T52
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T52
Taylor WallsSS
TB@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T52
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T52
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Otto Lopez (MIA) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jesús Luzardo. The righty is hitting .457 H/PA against lefties this year — and .400 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Jesús Luzardo has been giving up plenty to lefties lately — .243 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 15 career PA against Jesús Luzardo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (92) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a solid bat at .244 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357), hot bat.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a strong bat at .266 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Alec Burleson (STL) (88) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .288 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hot bat.
Troy Johnston (COL) (83) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357).
Ernie Clement (TOR) (83) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
James Wood (WSH) (82) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM).
RHP Davis Martin has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
RHP Slade Cecconi has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .457 against lefties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .318 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Jake McCarthy (COL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Alec Burleson (STL), James Wood (WSH), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Iván Herrera (STL), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Otto Lopez finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?: Otto Lopez (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jesús Luzardo. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Otto Lopez (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96), Jake McCarthy (92), Jackson Chourio (91), Alec Burleson (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, June 16, 2026?: Yes — Otto Lopez got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .457 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .233 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .318 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM). RHP Davis Martin has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY). RHP Slade Cecconi has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Jake McCarthy (COL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Alec Burleson (STL), James Wood (WSH), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Iván Herrera (STL), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.