Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Grant Holmes. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, June 22, 2026: Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Willi Castro (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (98), Donovan Walton (96), Jo Adell (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 22, 2026?

Yes — Fernando Tatis Jr. got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year. Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD). LHP Sam Aldegheri has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, June 22, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, June 22, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 65%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 68%

Full slate

117/21654%

season 57%

Top call Fernando Tatis Jr. came through. Ceddanne Rafaela didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–5

NYYaway

DEThomeTop matchup72 Final · 2–1

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–3

TEXaway

MIAhomeTop matchup63 Final · 1–4

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup61 Final · 2–4

HOUaway

TORhomeTop matchup60 Final · 2–1

MILaway

CINhomeTop matchup66 Final · 2–1

LADaway

MINhomeTop matchup65 Final · 5–6

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup57 Final · 2–3

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–3

BOSaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

BALaway

LAAhomeTop matchup96 Final · 0–1

ATLaway

SDhomeTop matchup100

Not starting44 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 260 shownScore

124 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T1
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T1
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@MIA· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T1
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@CWS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T1
Austin Riley3B
ATL@SD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
6
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T6
Taylor WardDH
BAL@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T6
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T6
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T6
James WoodRF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T6
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T6
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T6
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T6
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T6
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T6
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@COL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T6
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T6
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T6
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T6
Manny Machado3B
SDvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T6
Brice Turang2B
MIL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T6
George SpringerDH
TORvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T6
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T6
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T6
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T6
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T6
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T6
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T6
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T6
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T6
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T6
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsHOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T6
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
35
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #1
T35
Willi Castro2B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T35
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #4
T35
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T35
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T35
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T35
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T35
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T35
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T35
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T35
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T35
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T35
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T35
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T35
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@COL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #22
T35
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #24
T35
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #26
T35
Matt Olson1B
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #27
T35
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T35
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T35
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T35
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T35
Carter JensenC
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T35
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T35
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T35
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T35
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T35
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T35
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T35
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T35
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T35
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T35
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T35
Braxton FulfordDH
COLvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T35
Maikel Garcia3B
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T35
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T35
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T35
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T35
Will WagnerDH
SDvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T35
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T35
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T35
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T35
Elias DíazC
TEX@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T35
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T35
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T35
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T35
Max Muncy3B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T35
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T35
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T35
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T35
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T35
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T35
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T35
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T35
Joe MackC
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T35
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T35
Derek HillCF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T35
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T35
Colt Keith3B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T35
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T35
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T35
Ali SánchezC
NYY@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T35
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T35
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T35
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T35
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T35
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T35
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T35
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T35
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T35
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T35
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T35
Rafael MarchánC
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T35
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T35
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T35
Lane ThomasLF
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T35
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T35
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T35
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T35
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T35
Nick Loftin3B
KC@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #206
T35
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T35
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #210
T35
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #216
T35
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T35
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T35
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T35
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T35
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@CWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T35
Alex Freeland2B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, June 22, 2026 board at 100, with Willi Castro (COL) and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grant Holmes. The righty is hitting .239 H/PA against righties this year — and .283 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Grant Holmes has been vulnerable to righties lately — .273 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Grant Holmes, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs LHP Jake Bennett: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (98) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .255 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hitter's park, hot bat.
Donovan Walton (LAA) (96) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: an elite bat at .306 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.242), hot bat.
Jo Adell (LAA) (96) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .248 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
Michael Harris II (ATL) (91) vs RHP Michael King: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), hot bat.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (91) vs RHP Michael King: a solid bat at .236 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), due to bounce back.
Mauricio Dubón (ATL) (88) vs RHP Michael King: a solid bat at .249 into an arm tough on the same side (.182).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
LHP Sam Aldegheri has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).

Platoon edges to target

Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year.
Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year.
Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Donovan Walton (LAA), Michael Harris II (ATL), Yandy Díaz (TB), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Tyler Freeman (COL). Cold but due to bounce back: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Hunter Goodman (COL), Willson Contreras (BOS), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Garrett Mitchell (MIL).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Grant Holmes. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, June 22, 2026: Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Willi Castro (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (98), Donovan Walton (96), Jo Adell (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 22, 2026?: Yes — Fernando Tatis Jr. got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year. Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD). LHP Sam Aldegheri has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Donovan Walton (LAA), Michael Harris II (ATL), Yandy Díaz (TB), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Tyler Freeman (COL). Cold but due to bounce back: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Hunter Goodman (COL), Willson Contreras (BOS), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Garrett Mitchell (MIL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.