Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top hits spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grant Holmes. The righty is hitting .239 H/PA against righties this year — and .283 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Grant Holmes has been vulnerable to righties lately — .273 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Grant Holmes, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs LHP Jake Bennett: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (98) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .255 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) (96) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: an elite bat at .306 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.242), hot bat.
- Jo Adell (LAA) (96) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .248 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (91) vs RHP Michael King: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (91) vs RHP Michael King: a solid bat at .236 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), due to bounce back.
- Mauricio Dubón (ATL) (88) vs RHP Michael King: a solid bat at .249 into an arm tough on the same side (.182).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
- LHP Sam Aldegheri has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
Platoon edges to target
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Donovan Walton (LAA), Michael Harris II (ATL), Yandy Díaz (TB), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Tyler Freeman (COL). Cold but due to bounce back: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Hunter Goodman (COL), Willson Contreras (BOS), Coby Mayo (BAL), and Garrett Mitchell (MIL).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.