Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top hits spot: Zack Gelof
Zack Gelof (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. The righty is hitting — H/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Robbie Ray has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Robbie Ray too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .262 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (97) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a strong bat at .255 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) (94) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a solid bat at .240 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (93) vs RHP Kodai Senga: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (92) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .260 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yainer Diaz (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
- RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- RHP Sandy Alcantara has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .288 against lefties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .314 against lefties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Zack Gelof (ATH), Jake McCarthy (COL), Yandy Díaz (TB), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Michael Harris II (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Rafael Devers (SF), Vaughn Grissom (LAA), Jakob Marsee (MIA), Jordan Walker (STL), and Ryan O'Hearn (PIT).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Zack Gelof finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.