Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?

Zack Gelof (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Zack Gelof (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Jake McCarthy (97), Yandy Díaz (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, June 23, 2026?

No — Zack Gelof didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .288 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .314 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year. Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yainer Diaz (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU). RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). RHP Sandy Alcantara has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 65%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 68%

Full slate

169/27063%

season 57%

Top call Ceddanne Rafaela came through. Zack Gelof didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–7

HOUaway

TORhomeTop matchup66 Final · 4–3

NYYaway

DEThomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–2

SEAaway

PIThomeTop matchup81 Final · 12–5

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup94 Final · 4–6

TEXaway

MIAhomeTop matchup77 Final · 14–9

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup67 Final · 9–6

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup93 Final · 2–0

MILaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 12–3

LADaway

MINhomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup80 Final · 4–3

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup82 Final · 5–2

BOSaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

BALaway

LAAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 6–7

ATLaway

SDhomeTop matchup91 Final · 1–3

ATHaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting71 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 341 shownScore

174 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Nick Loftin3B
KC@TB· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
2
Nate EatonOF
BOS@COL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T2
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@SD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T2
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsATL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T2
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TOR· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T2
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@TB· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T2
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsKC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T2
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsNYY· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T2
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@WSH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T2
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T2
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T2
Andy PagesCF
LAD@MIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T2
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@MIA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T2
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@MIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T2
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsHOU· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
16
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsKC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T16
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T16
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T16
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T16
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T16
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T16
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T16
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T16
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T16
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@MIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T16
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T16
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T16
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@WSH· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T16
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T16
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T16
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T16
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T16
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TOR· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T16
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T16
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T16
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T16
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@COL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T16
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T16
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T16
Brice Turang2B
MIL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T16
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T16
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T16
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T16
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T16
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T16
Joe MackC
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T16
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T16
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T16
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #173
T16
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #176
T16
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T16
Austin HedgesC
CLE@CWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T16
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@MIN· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T16
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T16
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T16
Alex CallLF
LAD@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T16
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T16
José TenaDH
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T16
Luis Urías2B
TORvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T16
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T16
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T16
Ben MalgeriRF
DETvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T16
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T16
Chuckie RobinsonC
LAD@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T16
Alex Freeland2B
LAD@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T16
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T16
Raynel Delgado2B
HOU@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T16
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
69
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T69
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T69
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T69
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T69
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T69
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T69
William ContrerasC
MIL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T69
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T69
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T69
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T69
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T69
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T69
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T69
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T69
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T69
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T69
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T69
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T69
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsHOU· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T69
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T69
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T69
George SpringerDH
TORvsHOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T69
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T69
Carter JensenC
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T69
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T69
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T69
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T69
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T69
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T69
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T69
Matt Chapman3B
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T69
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CINvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T69
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T69
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T69
Jesús SánchezRF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T69
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T69
Endy RodríguezC
PITvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T69
Salvador PerezDH
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T69
Josh BellDH
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T69
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T69
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T69
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T69
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T69
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T69
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T69
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T69
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T69
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T69
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T69
Austin MartinRF
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T69
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T69
José FermínLF
STLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T69
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T69
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T69
Cal RaleighC
SEA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T69
Cole Young2B
SEA@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T69
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T69
Max Muncy3B
ATH@SF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T69
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T69
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T69
Willi Castro2B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T69
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T69
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T69
Connor WongC
BOS@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T69
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T69
José CaballeroSS
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T69
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T69
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #188
T69
LuJames Groover1B
AZ@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T69
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T69
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T69
Ian HappLF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T69
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T69
Matt ShawRF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T69
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T69
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T69
Myles StrawCF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T69
Rodolfo DuránC
SDvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T69
Rowdy Tellez1B
ATL@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T69
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T69
Michael Massey2B
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T69
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T69
Manny Machado3B
SDvsATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T69
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T69
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T69
Max Muncy3B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T69
Carson KellyC
CHC@NYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T69
Christian Moore2B
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T69
Austin WellsC
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T69
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T69
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T69
Kameron MisnerCF
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T69
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T69
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T69
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T69
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #258
T69
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T69
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T69
Steven KwanLF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T69
Sung-Mun Song2B
SDvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #264
T69
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T69
Derek HillCF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T69
Jimmy CrooksC
STLvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T69
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T69
Eli WhiteRF
ATL@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T69
Joey LoperfidoLF
HOU@TOR· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Zack Gelof (ATH) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 board at 100, with Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) and Jackson Chourio (MIL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Zack Gelof

Zack Gelof (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. The righty is hitting — H/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Robbie Ray has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Robbie Ray too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .262 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
Jake McCarthy (COL) (97) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a strong bat at .255 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hitter's park, hot bat.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Nate Eaton (BOS) (94) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a solid bat at .240 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (93) vs RHP Kodai Senga: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (92) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .260 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yainer Diaz (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
RHP Sandy Alcantara has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).

Platoon edges to target

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .288 against lefties this year.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .314 against lefties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year.
Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Zack Gelof (ATH), Jake McCarthy (COL), Yandy Díaz (TB), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Michael Harris II (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Rafael Devers (SF), Vaughn Grissom (LAA), Jakob Marsee (MIA), Jordan Walker (STL), and Ryan O'Hearn (PIT).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Zack Gelof finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?: Zack Gelof (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Zack Gelof (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Jake McCarthy (97), Yandy Díaz (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, June 23, 2026?: No — Zack Gelof didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .288 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .314 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year. Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yainer Diaz (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU). RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). RHP Sandy Alcantara has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Zack Gelof (ATH), Jake McCarthy (COL), Yandy Díaz (TB), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Michael Harris II (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Rafael Devers (SF), Vaughn Grissom (LAA), Jakob Marsee (MIA), Jordan Walker (STL), and Ryan O'Hearn (PIT).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.