Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, July 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Liam Hicks (100), Jonathan Aranda (95), Mookie Betts (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, July 2, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA). RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 2, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, July 2, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 65%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 67%

Full slate

111/16269%

season 57%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Yandy Díaz didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–1

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup84 Final · 7–2

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup59 Final · 4–14

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup81 Final · 11–5

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–2

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–10

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup65 Final · 0–1

LAAaway

SEAhomeTop matchup73 Final · 7–12

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting37 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 199 shownScore

112 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsSD· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T1
Dalton RushingC
LADvsSD· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
3
Otto LopezSS
MIA@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #8
T3
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@KC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T3
Jake MangumCF
PIT@PHI· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #11
T3
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T3
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@PHI· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T3
Masyn WinnSS
STL@ATL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T3
Hunter FeducciaC
TB@KC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T3
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsDET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T3
Jose TrevinoC
CIN@MIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #153
T3
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsDET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
13
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T13
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #13
T13
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T13
Carter JensenC
KCvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T13
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T13
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T13
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T13
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T13
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T13
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T13
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T13
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T13
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T13
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T13
Dillon DinglerC
DET@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T13
Max Muncy3B
LADvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T13
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T13
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T13
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T13
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T13
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T13
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T13
Elias DíazC
TEXvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T13
Brett SullivanC
COLvsMIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T13
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #123
T13
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #142
T13
TJ FriedlCF
CIN@MIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #162
40
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T40
Liam HicksC
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.4 H, #3
T40
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #4
T40
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T40
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #12
T40
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T40
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T40
Andy PagesCF
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T40
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #27
T40
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T40
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T40
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T40
Alec Burleson1B
STL@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T40
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T40
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T40
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T40
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T40
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T40
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T40
Iván HerreraDH
STL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T40
Riley GreeneLF
DET@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T40
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T40
Willi Castro2B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T40
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T40
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T40
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T40
Taylor WallsSS
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T40
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T40
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T40
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T40
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T40
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T40
Ty France1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T40
Kyle TeelC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T40
Manny Machado3B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T40
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T40
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T40
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T40
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T40
Richie Palacios2B
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T40
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T40
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T40
Colt Keith3B
DET@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T40
Marcell OzunaDH
PIT@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T40
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T40
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T40
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T40
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #116
T40
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #117
T40
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #120
T40
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T40
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #125
T40
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T40
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T40
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T40
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T40
Freddy FerminC
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T40
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #132
T40
David Hamilton3B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T40
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
T40
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T40
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T40
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #140
T40
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #141
T40
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T40
Samad TaylorLF
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #144
T40
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T40
JJ BledayLF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #147
T40
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T40
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T40
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #155
T40
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #158
T40
David FryRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, July 2, 2026 board at 100, with Yandy Díaz (TB) and Liam Hicks (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The lefty is hitting .242 H/PA against righties this year — and .313 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Randy Vásquez has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .458 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Randy Vásquez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.429).
Liam Hicks (MIA) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .244 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hitter's park, hot bat.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (95) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.750).
Mookie Betts (LAD) (95) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at .291 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.313), hot bat.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (95) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hitter's park.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (95) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .268 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.458).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (93) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .261 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308), hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).

Platoon edges to target

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Liam Hicks (MIA) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Liam Hicks (MIA), Mookie Betts (LAD), Junior Caminero (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA). Cold but due to bounce back: Jake McCarthy (COL), Travis Bazzana (CLE), JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Miguel Vargas (CWS).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, July 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Liam Hicks (100), Jonathan Aranda (95), Mookie Betts (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, July 2, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Liam Hicks (MIA) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA). RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Liam Hicks (MIA), Mookie Betts (LAD), Junior Caminero (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA). Cold but due to bounce back: Jake McCarthy (COL), Travis Bazzana (CLE), JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Miguel Vargas (CWS).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.