Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top hits spot: Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The righty is hitting .275 H/PA against righties this year — and .275 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .308 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (95) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (95) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .246 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (93) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.429).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (90) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: a strong bat at .259 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.210), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (88) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.458).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (85) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a strong bat at .267 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.750).
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (82) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
- RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Liam Hicks (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .258 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Liam Hicks (MIA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Junior Caminero (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Esteury Ruiz (MIA), Jake McCarthy (COL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and J.P. Crawford (SEA).
Lineup watch
162 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.