Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, July 3, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Mookie Betts (100), Luis Arraez (100), Otto Lopez (100), Xavier Edwards (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, July 3, 2026?

Yes — Luis García Jr. got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .261 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .258 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .299 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and José Tena (WSH). RHP Andre Pallante has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, July 3, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, July 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 65%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

140/23460%

season 57%

Top call Luis García Jr. came through. Mookie Betts didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 17–1

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup83 Final · 5–9

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup92 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup89 Final · 3–0

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup97 Final · 3–5

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup59 Final · 3–15

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–1

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup70 Final · 5–2

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 12–5

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–4

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup89 Final · 3–4

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–0

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup95

Not starting45 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 279 shownScore

142 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATH· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T1
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
3
Brice Turang2B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T3
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T3
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T3
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@WSH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T3
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T3
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CHC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T3
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsMIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T3
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T3
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T3
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
13
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T13
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T13
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T13
Casey SchmittLF
SF@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T13
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T13
William ContrerasC
MIL@AZ· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T13
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T13
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T13
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T13
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T13
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T13
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T13
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T13
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T13
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T13
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T13
James WoodRF
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T13
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T13
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T13
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T13
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T13
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T13
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T13
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T13
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T13
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T13
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T13
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T13
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T13
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T13
José FermínLF
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T13
Jake MangumCF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T13
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T13
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T13
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T13
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T13
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T13
Sean KeysDH
TOR@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T13
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T13
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T13
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T13
Nick FortesC
TB@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
55
Luis Arraez2B
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T55
Liam HicksC
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T55
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #7
T55
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T55
Heliot RamosLF
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T55
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T55
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T55
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #28
T55
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T55
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T55
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T55
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #34
T55
Yandy DíazDH
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T55
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T55
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T55
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T55
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T55
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T55
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T55
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T55
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T55
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T55
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T55
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T55
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T55
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T55
José TenaDH
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T55
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #81
T55
Taylor WardDH
BAL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T55
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T55
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T55
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T55
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #92
T55
Junior Caminero3B
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #94
T55
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T55
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T55
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T55
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T55
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T55
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T55
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T55
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T55
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T55
Max Muncy3B
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T55
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T55
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T55
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T55
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T55
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T55
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T55
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T55
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T55
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T55
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T55
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T55
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T55
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T55
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TOR@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T55
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T55
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T55
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T55
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T55
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T55
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T55
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T55
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T55
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T55
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #179
T55
Dalton RushingC
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T55
Carlos NarváezC
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T55
Cole Young2B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T55
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T55
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T55
David Hamilton3B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T55
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T55
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T55
JJ BledayLF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T55
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T55
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T55
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T55
Ben Williamson2B
TB@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T55
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T55
Rodolfo DuránC
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #228
T55
Luis TorrensC
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #229
T55
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #231
T55
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #234
T55
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T55
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, July 3, 2026 board at 100, with Mookie Betts (LAD) and Luis Arraez (SF) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is hitting .271 H/PA against righties this year — and .438 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .370 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .263 in 19 career PA against Mitch Keller. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Mookie Betts (LAD) (100) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235), hot bat.
Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm tough on the same side (.208), hitter's park.
Otto Lopez (MIA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm tough on the same side (.192).
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (99) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
Liam Hicks (MIA) (98) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .246 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), hot bat.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (97) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm tough on the same side (.179), hot bat.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (95) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.233).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and José Tena (WSH).
RHP Andre Pallante has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .261 against righties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .258 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .299 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Luis García Jr. (WSH), Mookie Betts (LAD), Liam Hicks (MIA), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Sam Antonacci (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Casey Schmitt (SF), Christian Yelich (MIL), Spencer Steer (CIN), and Yandy Díaz (TB).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, July 3, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Mookie Betts (100), Luis Arraez (100), Otto Lopez (100), Xavier Edwards (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, July 3, 2026?: Yes — Luis García Jr. got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .261 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .258 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .299 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and José Tena (WSH). RHP Andre Pallante has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Luis García Jr. (WSH), Mookie Betts (LAD), Liam Hicks (MIA), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Sam Antonacci (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Casey Schmitt (SF), Christian Yelich (MIL), Spencer Steer (CIN), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.