Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is hitting .304 H/PA against righties this year — and .314 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been tough on righties lately — .208 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Ryan Feltner too — .300 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (93) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .267 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (88) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (87) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.310).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (85) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a strong bat at .268 into an arm tough on the same side (.179), hot bat.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (85) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an elite bat at .302 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273), hot bat.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (85) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (84) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .247 into an arm tough on the same side (.174), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Curtis Mead (WSH).
- RHP Andre Pallante has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .270 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .291 against lefties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Brooks Lee (MIN), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Sal Stewart (CIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Casey Schmitt (SF), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Griffin Conine (MIA).
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.