Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is hitting .304 H/PA against righties this year — and .303 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .250 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .100 in 10 career PA against Tanner Gordon, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (99) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (1.000), hitter's park.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (87) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (85) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (1.000), hitter's park.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (83) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .255 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (81) vs LHP Gage Jump: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hot bat.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (78) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm tough on the same side (.172), due to bounce back.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (78) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .296 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.245).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Byron Buxton (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- LHP JP Sears has been vulnerable to lefties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .423 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .315 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .274 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Trea Turner (PHI), Rafael Devers (SF), Otto Lopez (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Brandon Marsh (PHI), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Nate Eaton (BOS), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.