Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?

Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP JP Sears. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Luis Arraez (100), Otto Lopez (100), Anthony Seigler (99), Nathan Lukes (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, July 5, 2026?

No — Andy Pages didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .230 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .423 against lefties this year. Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Michael Massey (KC). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF). LHP JP Sears has been vulnerable to lefties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Miguel Rojas (LAD). LHP Nick Lodolo has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 66%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 67%

Full slate

169/26863%

season 58%

Top call Otto Lopez came through. Andy Pages didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–9

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup63 Final · 11–5

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup83 Final · 2–3

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup55 Final · 6–1

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup56 Final · 7–6

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup60 Final · 4–6

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup60 Final · 2–5

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup80 Final · 0–2

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup67 Final · 6–3

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup63 Final · 6–7

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup59 Final · 9–8

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–4

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup91 Final · 5–2

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–5

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup99

Not starting68 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 336 shownScore

175 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Drew GilbertCF
SF@COL· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
2
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T2
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #7
T2
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsBOS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T2
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@LAA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #36
T2
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@WSH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T2
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T2
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T2
Riley GreeneLF
DET@TEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T2
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T2
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T2
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T2
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsMIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T2
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@CIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T2
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@NYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
16
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T16
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T16
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T16
Liam HicksC
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T16
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T16
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T16
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T16
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T16
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T16
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T16
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T16
Austin MartinRF
MIN@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T16
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T16
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T16
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T16
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #98
T16
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T16
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T16
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T16
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #121
T16
Taylor WardDH
BAL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T16
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T16
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOS@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T16
José TenaDH
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T16
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsBAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T16
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T16
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T16
Brian NavarretoC
MIA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T16
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T16
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T16
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T16
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T16
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T16
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T16
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T16
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
52
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #4
T52
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T52
Casey SchmittLF
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #6
T52
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T52
Heliot RamosLF
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #11
T52
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T52
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T52
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T52
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #22
T52
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #24
T52
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #26
T52
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #27
T52
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T52
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T52
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T52
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #37
T52
Willy AdamesSS
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T52
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T52
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T52
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T52
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T52
Brice Turang2B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T52
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T52
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T52
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T52
Manny Machado3B
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T52
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T52
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@NYY· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T52
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T52
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T52
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T52
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T52
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T52
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T52
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T52
Carter JensenC
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #91
T52
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T52
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T52
Dillon DinglerC
DET@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T52
Jake MangumCF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T52
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T52
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T52
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T52
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #107
T52
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T52
Michael Massey2B
KCvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #111
T52
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T52
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T52
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T52
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T52
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T52
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T52
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T52
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T52
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T52
Josh BellDH
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T52
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T52
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T52
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T52
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T52
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T52
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T52
Logan O'HoppeC
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T52
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T52
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T52
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T52
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T52
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T52
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T52
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T52
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T52
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T52
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T52
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T52
Brett SullivanC
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T52
Cooper IngleC
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T52
Kyle TeelC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T52
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T52
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T52
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T52
Ben Williamson2B
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T52
Gary SánchezC
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T52
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T52
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T52
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #193
T52
Luis CampusanoC
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T52
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T52
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T52
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T52
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T52
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T52
Tyler CallihanLF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T52
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T52
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T52
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T52
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T52
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T52
Luke RaleyRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T52
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T52
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T52
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T52
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T52
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T52
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T52
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T52
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #240
T52
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T52
Austin WellsC
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T52
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T52
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T52
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T52
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T52
James OutmanCF
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T52
Mitch GarverC
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T52
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T52
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T52
Brian ServenC
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T52
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #268
T52
Willi Castro2B
COLvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T52
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@HOU· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T52
Henry DavisC
PIT@WSH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Andy Pages (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (SF) and Otto Lopez (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Andy Pages

Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP JP Sears. The righty is hitting .230 H/PA against lefties this year — and .286 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And JP Sears has been vulnerable to lefties lately — .289 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against JP Sears. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hitter's park.
Otto Lopez (MIA) (100) vs LHP Gage Jump: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hot bat.
Anthony Seigler (BOS) (99) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .254 into an arm tough on the same side (.143).
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (91) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a strong bat at .260 into an arm tough on the same side (.176), due to bounce back.
Casey Schmitt (SF) (89) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (1.000), hitter's park.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (88) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a strong bat at .256 into an arm tough on the same side (.192).
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (86) vs LHP JP Sears: a strong bat at .251 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Michael Massey (KC).
RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF).
LHP JP Sears has been vulnerable to lefties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Miguel Rojas (LAD).
LHP Nick Lodolo has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).

Platoon edges to target

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .230 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year.
Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .423 against lefties this year.
Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Otto Lopez (MIA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Trea Turner (PHI), Rafael Devers (SF), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Liam Hicks (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Brandon Marsh (PHI), Oswald Peraza (LAA), and Sam Antonacci (CWS).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Andy Pages finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?: Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP JP Sears. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Luis Arraez (100), Otto Lopez (100), Anthony Seigler (99), Nathan Lukes (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, July 5, 2026?: No — Andy Pages didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .230 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .423 against lefties this year. Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Michael Massey (KC). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF). LHP JP Sears has been vulnerable to lefties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Miguel Rojas (LAD). LHP Nick Lodolo has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Otto Lopez (MIA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Trea Turner (PHI), Rafael Devers (SF), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Liam Hicks (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Brandon Marsh (PHI), Oswald Peraza (LAA), and Sam Antonacci (CWS).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.