Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?

Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, July 6, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Michael Harris II (100), Luis García Jr. (98), Brice Turang (95), Ernie Clement (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, July 6, 2026?

No — Andy Pages didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .221 against lefties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .296 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .274 against righties this year. Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year. Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .310 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Miguel Rojas (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .285 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). LHP Noah Cameron has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI). RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, July 6, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 66%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 67%

Full slate

92/14464%

season 58%

Top call Michael Harris II came through. Andy Pages didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–15

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup71 Final · 5–1

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup78 Final · 11–12

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup98 Final · 7–6

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–3

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup95 Final · 8–0

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup83 Final · 1–10

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup91 Final · 7–8

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting41 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 185 shownScore

97 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Tyler TolbertSS
KCvsPHI· 5-for-5
5HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
2
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T2
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsTOR· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T2
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T2
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsCOL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T2
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsPHI· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T2
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@KC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T2
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T2
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T2
Cole CarriggCF
COL@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T2
Dalton RushingC
LADvsCOL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T2
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsPHI· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T2
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #132
14
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T14
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T14
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T14
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T14
Max Muncy3B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T14
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T14
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T14
Christian Walker1B
HOU@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #53
T14
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T14
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T14
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T14
José FermínLF
STLvsMIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T14
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T14
Braden ShewmakeSS
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T14
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T14
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T14
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T14
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T14
Yainer DiazC
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T14
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T14
Cam SmithRF
HOU@WSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T14
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T14
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #104
T14
Starling MarteRF
KCvsPHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #106
T14
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #108
T14
David Hamilton3B
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #112
T14
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #122
T14
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #123
T14
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #135
T14
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #137
44
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T44
Brice Turang2B
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T44
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T44
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T44
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T44
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T44
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T44
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T44
Kyle Karros3B
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T44
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T44
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T44
Willi Castro2B
COL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T44
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T44
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T44
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T44
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T44
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T44
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #55
T44
James WoodRF
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T44
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T44
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T44
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T44
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T44
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T44
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T44
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T44
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T44
Manny Machado3B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T44
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T44
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T44
Ty France1B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T44
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #101
T44
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #105
T44
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #113
T44
Luke MaileC
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #114
T44
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #115
T44
Jared Young1B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #119
T44
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #121
T44
Derek HillCF
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T44
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T44
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T44
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T44
Drew MillasC
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T44
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T44
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T44
Pedro PagésC
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T44
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T44
Ronny MauricioSS
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #141
T44
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #143
T44
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@KC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T44
Garrett StubbsC
PHI@KC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T44
Michael Massey2B
KCvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T44
Luis TorrensC
NYM@ATL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T44
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Andy Pages (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, July 6, 2026 board at 100, with Michael Harris II (ATL) and Luis García Jr. (WSH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Andy Pages

Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is hitting .221 H/PA against lefties this year — and .273 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .545 across 11 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .266 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.269), hot bat.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) (98) vs RHP Mike Burrows: an excellent bat at .295 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.261).
Brice Turang (MIL) (95) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .257 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.571), hot bat.
Ernie Clement (TOR) (91) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.313).
Heliot Ramos (SF) (89) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .244 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
Miguel Rojas (LAD) (88) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: an excellent bat at .296 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (84) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .246 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Miguel Rojas (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .285 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
LHP Noah Cameron has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI).
RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).

Platoon edges to target

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .221 against lefties this year.
Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .296 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .274 against righties this year.
Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .310 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Brice Turang (MIL), Miguel Rojas (LAD), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Rafael Devers (SF), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Teoscar Hernández (LAD), Jake Cronenworth (SD), Max Muncy (LAD), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Sean Keys (TOR).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Andy Pages finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?: Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, July 6, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Michael Harris II (100), Luis García Jr. (98), Brice Turang (95), Ernie Clement (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, July 6, 2026?: No — Andy Pages didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .221 against lefties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .296 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .274 against righties this year. Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year. Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .310 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Miguel Rojas (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .285 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). LHP Noah Cameron has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI). RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Brice Turang (MIL), Miguel Rojas (LAD), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Rafael Devers (SF), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Teoscar Hernández (LAD), Jake Cronenworth (SD), Max Muncy (LAD), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Sean Keys (TOR).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.