Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is hitting .304 H/PA against righties this year — and .300 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been vulnerable to righties lately — .281 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tomoyuki Sugano. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (89) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hot bat.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (88) vs LHP Robbie Ray: an excellent bat at .295 into an arm tough on the same side (.150), hitter's park.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (82) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at .246 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368), hot bat.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (82) vs RHP Brendan Beck: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (82) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.212), hot bat.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (81) vs RHP Aaron Civale: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368), due to bounce back.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (79) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .247 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.281), hitter's park, hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Randy Arozarena (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
- RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
- RHP Griffin Canning has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .258 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .270 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .261 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Liam Hicks (MIA), Luis García Jr. (WSH), Rafael Devers (SF), Trea Turner (PHI), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Christian Yelich (MIL), Nelson Velázquez (STL), and Griffin Conine (MIA).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.