Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?

Heliot Ramos (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Sullivan. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Heliot Ramos (100), Liam Hicks (100), Trea Turner (99), Casey Schmitt (98), Luis Arraez (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, July 4, 2026?

Yes — Heliot Ramos got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .271 against lefties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .330 against lefties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .315 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Josh Naylor (SEA), and J.P. Crawford (SEA). RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 66%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 67%

Full slate

164/26662%

season 58%

Top call Heliot Ramos came through. Brandon Marsh didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–1

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup83 Final · 11–4

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup93 Final · 3–0

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup76 Final · 0–11

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup67 Final · 8–5

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup66 Final · 8–10

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup69 Final · 3–1

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup69 Final · 3–0

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup74 Final · 3–14

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup72 Final · 6–4

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup99 Final · 8–1

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup72 Final · 7–2

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup84 Final · 0–3

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup87

Not starting57 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 323 shownScore

169 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Liam HicksC
MIA@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T1
Luis Arraez2B
SF@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T1
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T1
Brice Turang2B
MIL@AZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T1
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@KC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T1
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsTOR· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T1
Josh BellDH
MIN@NYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T1
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T1
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T1
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T1
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsBAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T1
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@CIN· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
13
Casey SchmittLF
SF@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #4
T13
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T13
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T13
William ContrerasC
MIL@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T13
Mark Vientos1B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T13
Victor BericotoLF
SF@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T13
Junior Caminero3B
TB@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T13
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T13
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T13
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T13
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T13
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T13
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T13
Riley GreeneLF
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T13
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T13
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T13
Willy AdamesSS
SF@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T13
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T13
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T13
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T13
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #98
T13
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T13
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T13
Joe MackC
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T13
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@WSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T13
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T13
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T13
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T13
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T13
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T13
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T13
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T13
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T13
Tyler TolbertSS
KCvsPHI· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T13
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #175
T13
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T13
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T13
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T13
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T13
Eli WhiteRF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T13
Max SchuemannLF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T13
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T13
Richie Palacios2B
TB@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T13
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T13
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T13
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T13
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
60
Heliot RamosLF
SF@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T60
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T60
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #6
T60
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T60
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T60
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T60
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T60
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T60
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T60
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T60
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T60
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T60
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T60
Andy PagesCF
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T60
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T60
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T60
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T60
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T60
Juan SotoLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T60
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T60
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T60
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T60
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T60
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T60
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T60
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T60
Christian YelichDH
MIL@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T60
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T60
Eric Wagaman1B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T60
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T60
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T60
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T60
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T60
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T60
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T60
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T60
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T60
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #95
T60
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T60
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T60
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T60
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T60
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T60
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T60
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T60
James WoodRF
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T60
JJ BledayLF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T60
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T60
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T60
Alex JacksonC
MIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T60
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T60
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T60
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T60
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T60
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T60
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T60
Starling MarteRF
KCvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T60
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T60
José FermínLF
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T60
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T60
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T60
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T60
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T60
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T60
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T60
José TenaDH
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T60
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T60
Colt Keith3B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T60
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T60
Joey BartC
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T60
TJ FriedlCF
CINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #173
T60
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #179
T60
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T60
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T60
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T60
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T60
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T60
Jorge MateoSS
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T60
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T60
Cole Young2B
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T60
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T60
Taylor WardDH
BAL@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T60
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T60
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T60
Connor WongC
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T60
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T60
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T60
Colton CowserCF
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T60
Ben MalgeriRF
DET@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T60
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T60
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TOR@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T60
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T60
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T60
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T60
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T60
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T60
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T60
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T60
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T60
Taylor WallsSS
TB@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T60
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T60
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsDET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T60
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T60
Drew RomoC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T60
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T60
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T60
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T60
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T60
Kyle TeelC
CWS@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T60
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsMIL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Heliot Ramos (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, with Liam Hicks (MIA) and Trea Turner (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Sullivan. The righty is hitting .271 H/PA against lefties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Sean Sullivan has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sean Sullivan. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Liam Hicks (MIA) (100) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at .244 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368), hot bat.
Trea Turner (PHI) (99) vs RHP Michael Wacha: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
Casey Schmitt (SF) (98) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .265 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Luis Arraez (SF) (97) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .252 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (96) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a strong bat at .267 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368), due to bounce back.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) (93) vs RHP Michael Wacha: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.258).
Trevor Larnach (MIN) (93) vs RHP Brendan Beck: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Josh Naylor (SEA), and J.P. Crawford (SEA).
RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA).

Platoon edges to target

Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .271 against lefties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .330 against lefties this year.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .315 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Heliot Ramos (SF) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Liam Hicks (MIA), Trea Turner (PHI), Trent Grisham (NYY), Brice Turang (MIL), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Byron Buxton (MIN), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Griffin Conine (MIA), and Ryan Kreidler (MIN).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Heliot Ramos finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?: Heliot Ramos (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Sullivan. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Heliot Ramos (100), Liam Hicks (100), Trea Turner (99), Casey Schmitt (98), Luis Arraez (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, July 4, 2026?: Yes — Heliot Ramos got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .271 against lefties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .330 against lefties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .315 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Heliot Ramos (SF) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Josh Naylor (SEA), and J.P. Crawford (SEA). RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Liam Hicks (MIA), Trea Turner (PHI), Trent Grisham (NYY), Brice Turang (MIL), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Byron Buxton (MIN), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Griffin Conine (MIA), and Ryan Kreidler (MIN).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.