Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?

Michael Harris II (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, July 7, 2026: Michael Harris II (100), Freddie Freeman (100), Shohei Ohtani (98), Heliot Ramos (88), Jake Mangum (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, July 7, 2026?

Yes — Michael Harris II got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year. Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Matt Svanson has been vulnerable to righties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: A.J. Ewing (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM). LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL). RHP Zac Gallen has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 66%

Top 10

10/10100%

season 68%

Full slate

181/28863%

season 58%

Top call Michael Harris II came through. Bryce Harper didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–3

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup69 Final · 5–2

CHCaway

BALhomeTop matchup74 Final · 2–6

ATHaway

DEThomeTop matchup66 Final · 4–12

ATLaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

SEAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–6

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup77 Final · 6–3

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 4–1

PHIaway

CINhomeTop matchup80 Final · 16–12

KCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–3

CLEaway

MINhomeTop matchup69 Final · 8–1

BOSaway

CWShomeTop matchup62 Final · 10–2

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup82 Final · 3–8

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–4

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup82 Final · 9–3

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup88 Final · 4–3

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting71 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 359 shownScore

187 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@NYM· 5-for-6
5HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
2
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsKC· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T2
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsATL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
4
Liam HicksC
MIAvsSEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T4
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T4
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T4
Christian YelichDH
MIL@STL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T4
Lane ThomasLF
KC@NYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T4
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsCOL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T4
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@DET· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T4
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T4
Nick Loftin3B
KC@NYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T4
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T4
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@STL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
15
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T15
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T15
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T15
Brice Turang2B
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T15
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T15
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T15
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T15
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T15
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T15
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T15
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T15
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T15
Cole CarriggCF
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T15
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T15
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T15
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T15
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@PIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T15
Salvador PerezDH
KC@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T15
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T15
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T15
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T15
Josh BellDH
MINvsCLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T15
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T15
James WoodRF
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T15
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@MIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T15
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T15
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T15
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T15
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T15
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T15
Derek HillCF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T15
Jared Young1B
NYMvsKC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T15
Austin Riley3B
ATL@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T15
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #188
T15
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #206
T15
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T15
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T15
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T15
Cal RaleighC
SEA@MIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T15
Jonatan ClaseLF
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T15
Sean KeysDH
TOR@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T15
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T15
Elias DíazC
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T15
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T15
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T15
Michael Massey2B
KC@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T15
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T15
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T15
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T15
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T15
Ali SánchezC
NYY@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T15
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T15
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T15
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #274
T15
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #276
T15
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #277
T15
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #278
72
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T72
Jake MangumCF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T72
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T72
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T72
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T72
Andy PagesCF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T72
Carter JensenC
KC@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T72
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T72
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T72
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T72
Luis LaraRF
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T72
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T72
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T72
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T72
Willi Castro2B
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T72
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T72
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T72
Matt Olson1B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T72
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T72
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T72
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T72
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@NYM· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T72
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T72
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T72
Austin MartinRF
MINvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T72
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T72
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T72
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T72
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T72
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T72
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T72
Colt Keith3B
DETvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T72
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T72
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T72
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T72
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T72
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T72
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T72
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T72
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T72
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T72
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T72
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T72
Josh LoweLF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T72
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T72
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T72
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T72
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T72
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T72
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T72
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T72
Christian Walker1B
HOU@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T72
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T72
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T72
José FermínLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T72
Jonah HeimC
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T72
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T72
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T72
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T72
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T72
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T72
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T72
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T72
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T72
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T72
Junior PerezCF
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T72
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T72
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T72
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T72
Cole Young2B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T72
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T72
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T72
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T72
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T72
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T72
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #191
T72
Nick AllenSS
HOU@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T72
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T72
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T72
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T72
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T72
Gary SánchezC
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T72
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T72
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T72
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T72
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T72
James McCannC
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T72
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T72
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T72
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T72
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T72
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T72
Connor WongC
BOS@CWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T72
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T72
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T72
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T72
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #253
T72
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
T72
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T72
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T72
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T72
Christian VázquezC
HOU@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T72
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T72
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
T72
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #275
T72
Henry BolteCF
ATH@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #279
T72
Braxton FulfordDH
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #280
T72
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #281
T72
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #284
T72
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #287
T72
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T72
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T72
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T72
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T72
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
T72
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@TB· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Michael Harris II (ATL) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 board at 100, with Freddie Freeman (LAD) and Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. The lefty is hitting .303 H/PA against righties this year — and .324 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Paul Skenes has been tough on righties lately — .208 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Paul Skenes. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Freddie Freeman (LAD) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (98) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
Heliot Ramos (SF) (88) vs RHP Spencer Miles: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
Jake Mangum (PIT) (85) vs RHP Hurston Waldrep: a strong bat at .267 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
Liam Hicks (MIA) (85) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.346), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (82) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
Brice Turang (MIL) (82) vs RHP Hunter Dobbins: a strong bat at .260 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Matt Svanson has been vulnerable to righties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: A.J. Ewing (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
RHP Zac Gallen has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).

Platoon edges to target

Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.
Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Heliot Ramos (SF), Liam Hicks (MIA), Brice Turang (MIL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Otto Lopez (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Andy Pages (LAD), Yandy Díaz (TB), Tommy Edman (LAD), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI).

How it played out

10 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Michael Harris II finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?: Michael Harris II (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, July 7, 2026: Michael Harris II (100), Freddie Freeman (100), Shohei Ohtani (98), Heliot Ramos (88), Jake Mangum (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, July 7, 2026?: Yes — Michael Harris II got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year. Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Matt Svanson has been vulnerable to righties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: A.J. Ewing (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM). LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL). RHP Zac Gallen has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Heliot Ramos (SF), Liam Hicks (MIA), Brice Turang (MIL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Otto Lopez (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Andy Pages (LAD), Yandy Díaz (TB), Tommy Edman (LAD), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.