Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Justin Wrobleski. The lefty is hitting .386 H/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Justin Wrobleski has been tough on lefties lately — .000 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Justin Wrobleski, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (89) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm tough on the same side (.204).
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .264 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.389), due to bounce back.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (87) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (85) vs RHP Paul Skenes: a strong bat at .266 into an arm tough on the same side (.208), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (85) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .250 into an arm tough on the same side (.204).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (84) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .255 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), due to bounce back.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (84) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .244 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: A.J. Ewing (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
- LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Gavin Sheets (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .296 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .274 against righties this year.
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .245 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Michael Harris II (ATL), Heliot Ramos (SF), Otto Lopez (MIA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Brice Turang (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Mookie Betts (LAD), Yandy Díaz (TB), Andy Pages (LAD), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Nick Kurtz (ATH).
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.