Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, May 24, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 24, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.3 BF
Expected batters faced10.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%2.0
2. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%1.3
3. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%1.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%1.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%1.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%1.0
7. Ramón Laureano (R)11.7%1.0
8. Ty France (R)11.7%1.0
9. Nick Castellanos (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
BOVBovada-125-115
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 1.2 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload12.2 BF
Expected batters faced12.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%2.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%2.0
3. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%1.2
5. Brett Baty (L)11.7%1.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%1.0
7. Nick Morabito (R)11.7%1.0
8. Tyrone Taylor (R)11.7%1.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-210+145
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 1.4 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.0 BF
Expected batters faced18.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%2.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%2.0
3. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-145+109
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
2. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%2.9
3. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%2.0
5. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%2.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
7. Graham Pauley (L)11.7%2.0
8. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+111-147
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.5 BF
Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%2.5
4. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.0
5. Andy Pages (R)11.7%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
7. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
8. Hyeseong Kim (L)11.7%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+100-133
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%2.1
5. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%2.0
7. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%2.0
8. James Outman (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-135-105
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.4
5. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
7. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%2.0
8. Sebastián Rivero (R)11.7%2.0
9. Adam Frazier (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
DKDraftKings+131-174
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%2.7
5. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
6. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
7. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
8. Harrison Bader (R)11.7%2.0
9. Will Brennan (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+109-145
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tim Tawa (R)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jorge Barrosa (R)11.7%2.8
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)11.7%2.0
6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Aramis Garcia (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-131-102
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%3.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.0
6. Petey Halpin (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
DKDraftKings+129-172
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Max Schuemann (R)11.7%3.0
2. Aaron Judge (R)11.7%3.0
3. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%2.1
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+125
DKDraftKings-176+132
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
5. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.3
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Wenceel Pérez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+112-149
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
5. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%2.6
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)11.7%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%3.0
4. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.9
6. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-185
BOVBovada+140-180
DKDraftKings+125-166
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+110
DKDraftKings-158+119
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
3. Lenyn Sosa (R)11.7%3.0
4. Myles Straw (R)11.7%3.0
5. Davis Schneider (R)11.7%3.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.1
7. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-125-106
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
6. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.1
7. Taylor Walls (R)11.7%2.0
8. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
9. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-144+108
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)11.7%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.1
7. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-137+104
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
5. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.2
7. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
6. Edgar Quero (R)11.7%2.2
7. Jarred Kelenic (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+110-147
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
6. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%2.3
7. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-140
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+105-155
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%3.0
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.7
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.7%2.0
9. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings+101-135
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.7%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
6. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%2.8
7. Sam Haggerty (R)11.7%2.0
8. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%2.0
9. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.9
7. Braden Shewmake (L)11.7%2.0
8. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-144+109
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)11.7%3.0
6. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%2.9
7. Eli White (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-120-110
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
5. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%3.0
7. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-152+114
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%3.0
7. Leody Taveras (R)11.7%2.2
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
6. Nick Sogard (L)11.7%3.0
7. Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.2
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
4. Luis Rengifo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%3.0
6. Blake Perkins (L)11.7%3.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.5
8. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-185
DKDraftKings+129-172
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%3.0
7. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%2.5
8. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-118-112
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
22 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Shota ImanagaP
CHCvsHOU· proj #24
7ERFinal
2
Noah SchultzP
CWS@SF· proj #8
6ERFinal
T2
Jose QuintanaP
COL@AZ· proj #9
6ERFinal
4
Trevor RogersP
BALvsDET· proj #12
4ERFinal
T4
Michael KingP
SDvsATH· proj #18
4ERFinal
T4
Robbie RayP
SFvsCWS· proj #20
4ERFinal
T4
Bryan WooP
SEA@KC· proj #21
4ERFinal
T4
Bailey OberP
MIN@BOS· proj #28
4ERFinal
9
Brandon SproatP
MILvsLAD· proj #5
3ERFinal
T9
Sonny GrayP
BOSvsMIN· proj #6
3ERFinal
T9
Peter LambertP
HOU@CHC· proj #22
3ERFinal
T9
Seth LugoP
KCvsSEA· proj #30
3ERFinal
13
Andrew PainterP
PHIvsCLE· proj #10
2ERFinal
T13
Dylan CeaseP
TORvsPIT· proj #26
2ERFinal
15
Martín PérezP
ATLvsWSH· proj #3
1ERFinal
T15
MacKenzie GoreP
TEX@LAA· proj #7
1ERFinal
T15
Ryne NelsonP
AZvsCOL· proj #14
1ERFinal
T15
Troy MeltonP
DET@BAL· proj #15
1ERFinal
T15
Mitch KellerP
PIT@TOR· proj #16
1ERFinal
T15
Reid DetmersP
LAAvsTEX· proj #23
1ERFinal
T15
Framber ValdezP
DET@BAL· proj #27
1ERFinal
T15
Yoshinobu YamamotoP
LAD@MIL· proj #29
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/520%
season 52%-32 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/1040%
season 52%-12 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
7/1937%
season building
Top 50
13/2846%
season building
Full slate
13/2846%
season 49%-3 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 24, 2026
Luis Medina (ATH) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, May 24, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER, with Tyler Phillips (MIA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Luis Medina
Luis Medina (ATH) tops the Sunday, May 24, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER vs SD. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Tyler Phillips (MIA) (87) — about 1.4 ER vs NYM.
Martín Pérez (ATL) (46) — about 2.0 ER vs WSH.
Christian Scott (NYM) (33) — about 2.2 ER vs MIA.
Brandon Sproat (MIL) (28) — about 2.3 ER vs LAD.
Sonny Gray (BOS) (24) — about 2.4 ER vs MIN.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.2 ER. Luis Medina finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, May 24, 2026)?
Luis Medina (ATH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.2 ER against SD.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, May 24, 2026: Luis Medina (~1.2 ER), Tyler Phillips (~1.4 ER), Martín Pérez (~2.0 ER), Christian Scott (~2.2 ER), Brandon Sproat (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
