Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Monday, May 25, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.3 BF
Expected batters faced9.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%1.3
2. David Fry (R)11.7%1.0
3. Petey Halpin (L)11.7%1.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%1.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%1.0
6. Angel Martínez (R)11.7%1.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%1.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)11.7%1.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.2 BF
Expected batters faced14.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%2.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%2.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%2.0
5. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%2.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%1.2
7. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%1.0
8. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%1.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-152+114
We project 1.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.9 BF
Expected batters faced18.9
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%2.9
2. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%2.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%2.0
4. Andy Pages (R)11.7%2.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
7. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.0
8. Hyeseong Kim (L)11.7%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+117-155
We project 2.1 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.0 BF
Expected batters faced19.0
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.7%2.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%2.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.0
6. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.0
7. Andrew McCutchen (R)11.7%2.0
8. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+128-171
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%2.6
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+103-137
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.1
5. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)11.7%2.0
7. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
9. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%2.3
5. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0
7. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-155+116
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Cole (L)11.7%3.0
2. Braden Shewmake (L)11.7%3.0
3. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.7%2.8
5. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-179+134
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (R)11.7%3.0
3. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)11.7%2.9
5. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%2.0
6. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
8. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Caratini (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+104-139
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carlos Cortes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%2.9
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%2.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
8. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
9. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.2
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
7. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+119-158
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.4
6. Willi Castro (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115
DKDraftKings-147+111
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.5
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%2.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)11.7%2.0
9. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+143-191
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
5. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%2.6
6. Luis Rengifo (R)11.7%2.0
7. Blake Perkins (R)11.7%2.0
8. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-101-132
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%2.6
6. Lucas Erceg (L)11.7%2.0
7. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
BOVBovada-110-130
DKDraftKings+114-151
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.6
6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
7. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+123-164
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%3.0
4. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.7
6. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Morabito (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Victor Robles (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%2.8
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.0
7. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-135+101
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%3.0
5. Myles Straw (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.1
7. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
9. Lenyn Sosa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-115-115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
6. Nick Castellanos (R)11.7%2.3
7. Ty France (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ramón Laureano (R)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
6. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%2.4
7. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Rikuu Nishida (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-112-118
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
4. Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.6
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. José Tena (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.7
7. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+118-158
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Dane Myers (R)11.7%2.8
7. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-156+117
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Aaron Judge (R)11.7%3.0
3. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Max Schuemann (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.7
8. J.C. Escarra (L)11.7%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-110-121
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.0 BF
Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%3.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%3.0
8. Harrison Bader (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings-121-110
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
22 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Aaron CivaleP
ATHvsSEA· proj #18
7ERFinal
T1
Tanner BibeeP
CLEvsWSH· proj #23
7ERFinal
T1
Nolan McLeanP
NYMvsCIN· proj #24
7ERFinal
4
Trey YesavageP
TORvsMIA· proj #7
5ERFinal
5
Kumar RockerP
TEXvsHOU· proj #8
4ERFinal
6
Griffin CanningP
SDvsPHI· proj #5
3ERFinal
T6
Matthew LiberatoreP
STL@MIL· proj #14
3ERFinal
T6
Zebby MatthewsP
MIN@CWS· proj #21
3ERFinal
9
Emmet SheehanP
LADvsCOL· proj #12
2ERFinal
T9
Will WarrenP
NYY@KC· proj #15
2ERFinal
T9
Landen RouppP
SFvsAZ· proj #16
2ERFinal
T9
Michael WachaP
KCvsNYY· proj #25
2ERFinal
T9
Merrill KellyP
AZ@SF· proj #26
2ERFinal
14
PJ PoulinP
WSH@CLE· proj #1
1ERFinal
T14
Ben BrownP
CHC@PIT· proj #2
1ERFinal
T14
Tanner GordonP
COL@LAD· proj #3
1ERFinal
T14
Anthony KayP
CWSvsMIN· proj #9
1ERFinal
T14
Carmen MlodzinskiP
PITvsCHC· proj #11
1ERFinal
T14
Jacob MisiorowskiP
MILvsSTL· proj #13
1ERFinal
T14
Nick LodoloP
CIN@NYM· proj #17
1ERFinal
T14
Janson JunkP
MIA@TOR· proj #19
1ERFinal
T14
Kyle BradishP
BALvsTB· proj #22
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 52%-2 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
6/967%
season 52%+15 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
9/1947%
season building
Top 50
12/2548%
season building
Full slate
12/2548%
season 49%-1 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026
PJ Poulin (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Monday, May 25, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Ben Brown (CHC) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: PJ Poulin
PJ Poulin (WSH) tops the Monday, May 25, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Ben Brown (CHC) (69) — about 1.6 ER vs PIT.
Tanner Gordon (COL) (39) — about 2.1 ER vs LAD.
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) (38) — about 2.1 ER vs TEX.
Griffin Canning (SD) (28) — about 2.3 ER vs PHI.
Shane McClanahan (TB) (25) — about 2.4 ER vs BAL.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.6 ER. PJ Poulin finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?
PJ Poulin (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Monday, May 25, 2026: PJ Poulin (~1.0 ER), Ben Brown (~1.6 ER), Tanner Gordon (~2.1 ER), Tatsuya Imai (~2.1 ER), Griffin Canning (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
